基于博弈论的干散货货主船队经营策略研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 05:23

本文选题：货主船队 + 博弈论　；参考：《大连海事大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,我国干散货船东背景多元化趋势显著,其中引起最多关注的便是由大型干散货货主斥资建造的货主船队的崛起,出于规避运输风险,节省运输成本,增强市场掌控力等多方因素,货主船东们在中国沿海上掀起了一场规模浩大的运力扩张运动。干散货货主组建船队有其一定的优势因素,货源充足稳定,资本实力雄厚等条件确实为货主船队的建立提供了强有力的支持。但近年来,由于航运市场的持续低迷,燃油人力成本高企,外加货主船东欠缺的航运专业背景使然,货主船队的运营也面临着艰难的处境。本文正是以此为背景,并结合中国沿海干散货市场时局,试图为国内货主船东找到继续发展的有效途径和现实出路。本文的主要工作有：完善规范了货主船队的理论学说,归纳了货主船队的形成动因,详细列举了中国干散货货主船队的规模与现况,另外本文深入分析了现今中国沿海干散货运输市场复杂沉闷的局面,从供需双重角度证实了干散货市场运力过剩的局面,提出应逐步缩减消化市场现存运力,且货主船队的扩张规模和速度要受市场调控,管理部门也应对其实施有效干预。基于货主船队现存的生存风险与专业劣势,本文借鉴了当今航运市场上盛行的联盟合作模式,提议货主船队应加强与传统船东的合作,为使论证更为充分有力,本文用博弈理论证明了两方合作确实能够扩大联盟整体利益,提升联盟市场竞争力,实现合作方的双赢。同时本文亦探讨了货主船队与传统船东联盟后的利益分配问题,使整个合作建议具有充分的实践性。最后,文章对货主船队的下阶段发展策略提出建议,首先货主船队应适度参与市场竞争,要站在沿海运输市场全局的高度,谨慎对待自身发展规模,以自货自运为主,将发展目光专注到增强自身专业能力上来,其次注重培育自身核心竞争力,开拓更加适宜专业货种的运输船队,并完善建立相关供应链上下游,另外还要注重建立稳固的运营模式,选择可靠诚信的合作伙伴,并且制定航运企业风险防范机制,以维系企业长久稳定的发展。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the trend of diversification in the background of dry bulk cargo shipowners in China is remarkable, among which the most concerned is the rise of shippers built by large dry bulk cargo owners, in order to avoid transportation risks and save transportation costs. With multiple factors, such as market dominance, shipowners have unleashed a massive expansion of capacity off China's coast. Dry bulk cargo owners have their own advantages in the establishment of the fleet, such as sufficient and stable supply of goods, strong capital strength and so on, which provide strong support for the establishment of the cargo owner fleet. However, in recent years, because of the continuous downturn of shipping market, the high cost of fuel labor and the lack of shipping professional background, the shippers' fleet operation is also facing a difficult situation. Based on this background and combined with the current situation of dry bulk cargo market along the coast of China, this paper tries to find an effective way and realistic outlet for domestic shippers to continue to develop. The main work of this paper is as follows: perfecting and standardizing the theory of consignor fleet, summing up the formation motivation of cargo owner flotilla, enumerating in detail the scale and current situation of Chinese dry bulk carrier fleet, In addition, this paper deeply analyzes the complicated and dreary situation of China's coastal dry bulk transportation market, confirms the situation of excess capacity in dry bulk market from the point of view of supply and demand, and proposes that the existing capacity of the market should be gradually reduced and digested. Moreover, the expansion scale and speed of the consignor fleet are regulated by the market, and the management department should intervene in it effectively. Based on the existing survival risk and professional disadvantage of the cargo owner fleet, this paper draws lessons from the alliance cooperation mode prevailing in the shipping market today, and proposes that the cargo owner fleet should strengthen the cooperation with the traditional shipowners in order to make the demonstration more fully and effectively. This paper proves by the game theory that the cooperation between the two parties can really expand the overall interests of the alliance, enhance the competitiveness of the alliance market, and realize the win-win situation of the partners. At the same time, this paper also discusses the benefit distribution of the consignor fleet and the traditional shipowner alliance, which makes the whole cooperation proposal fully practical. Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions on the next stage development strategy of the cargo owner fleet. Firstly, the cargo owner fleet should participate in the market competition moderately, stand at the height of the overall situation of the coastal transportation market, treat its own development scale with caution, and give priority to self-cargo and self-transportation. Focus on the development of their own professional ability to enhance their next focus on cultivating their core competitiveness, develop more suitable for the transport of professional cargo fleet, and improve the establishment of related supply chain upstream and downstream, In addition, we should pay attention to the establishment of a stable operation model, select reliable and honest partners, and formulate a risk prevention mechanism for shipping enterprises, in order to maintain the long-term and stable development of the enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U695.27

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