东三省区域货运量影响因素筛选及预测研究

发布时间：2018-05-11 08:54

本文选题：东三省 + 货运量　；参考：《吉林大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：东三省坐落于东北亚的中心，与俄罗斯、韩国、日本等国家相邻，是我国面向东北亚开放的重要枢纽和核心区域。在东三省区域经济活动中，区域物流有着越来越重要的地位。区域物流是经济活动的动脉，是联系生产和消费的纽带，是社会发展和人民生活水平提高的基础条件，也是衡量一个国家现代化程度的重要标准之一。因此，对东三省区域物流展开研究具有实际意义。为了对区域物流的价值有更清晰的认识，首先应先认清该区域的物流发展水平。本文试图对东三省进行物流需求预测研究，从而为东三省地区物流业的发展水平及趋势提供一个可信的参考依据。由于物流需求相对难以界定和衡量，，货运量是物流需求的重要组成部分。因此，本文以货运量为研究对象，进行影响因素分析及预测，在一定程度上能够反映出东三省区域物流需求未来几年的变化趋势。论文内容主要包括以下几个部分：（1）区域物流及货运量的相关理论。阐述区域物流及物流需求的基本内涵和主要特征，界定区域货运量的内涵，分析区域经济对区域物流的影响，探讨区域货运量与物流需求量之间的关系。（2）筛选影响区域货运量的因素。通过查阅相关文献，指出目前区域货运量影响因素及指标选择方面的不足：绝大多数仅仅利用定性分析法来构建区域货运量影响因素指标体系，并没有进行相关的定量分析。进而提出本文采用定量分析法对通过定性分析构建的影响因素指标进行筛选，结合东三省实际数据资料，选用岭回归方法进行筛选，求出更符合实际的区域货运量影响因素指标体系。（3）东三省区域货运量影响因素预测。通过分析预测方法的相关文献，认识到各种预测方法优缺点及应用领域。选用灰色预测方法，利用二次筛选出来的货运量影响因素指标进行拟合，构造出各货运量影响因素指标的预测模型，拟合成功后进行未来6年的影响因素指标预测。（4）东三省区域货运量预测。选用多元线性回归预测方法构建东三省区域货运量预测模型，并结合岭回归估计对预测模型进行改进。利用改进后的预测模型，并结合影响因素指标预测结果，计算出东三省未来6年的区域货运量。
[Abstract]:Located in the center of Northeast Asia, the three provinces are adjacent to Russia, South Korea, Japan and other countries, and are the important hub and core region of our country for the opening of Northeast Asia. In the regional economic activities of the three eastern provinces, regional logistics has a more and more important position. Regional logistics is the artery of economic activity, the link of production and consumption, the basic condition of social development and the improvement of people's living standard, and one of the important standards to measure the degree of modernization of a country. Therefore, it is of practical significance to carry out research on the regional logistics of the three eastern provinces. In order to have a clearer understanding of the value of regional logistics, we should first recognize the level of regional logistics development. This paper attempts to carry on the logistics demand forecast research to the east three provinces, thus provides a credible reference basis for the development level and the trend of the logistics industry in the three eastern provinces. Because logistics demand is relatively difficult to define and measure, freight volume is an important part of logistics demand. Therefore, this paper takes the freight volume as the research object, carries on the influence factor analysis and the forecast, can reflect the change trend of the regional logistics demand in the future several years to some extent. The main contents of this paper are as follows: Theory of regional logistics and freight volume. This paper expounds the basic connotation and main characteristics of regional logistics and logistics demand, defines the connotation of regional freight volume, analyzes the influence of regional economy on regional logistics, and probes into the relationship between regional freight volume and logistics demand. (2) screening the factors affecting regional freight volume. By referring to the relevant literature, the paper points out the deficiency of influencing factors and index selection of regional freight volume at present: most of them only use qualitative analysis method to construct the index system of regional freight volume influence factors, and do not carry on the related quantitative analysis. Furthermore, this paper uses quantitative analysis method to screen the influencing factors constructed by qualitative analysis, combines the actual data of the three provinces, and selects the ridge regression method to screen. To find out a more realistic regional cargo volume impact factors index system. 3) forecasting the influencing factors of regional freight volume in the three eastern provinces. By analyzing the related literature of forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of various forecasting methods and their application fields are recognized. The grey forecasting method is used to fit the influencing factors of freight volume, and the forecasting model of the influencing factors is constructed. After fitting successfully, the influencing factors are predicted in the next 6 years. Forecast of regional freight volume in the three eastern provinces. The forecasting model of regional freight volume in the three provinces is constructed by using the method of multiple linear regression, and the forecasting model is improved by combining with the estimation of ridge regression. Based on the improved forecasting model and the forecast results of influencing factors, the regional freight volume of the three provinces in the next 6 years is calculated.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F259.27;F224;F512.7

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