中美两国民航安全发展及其规律研究

发布时间：2018-05-11 09:20

本文选题：中国和美国 + 民航安全　；参考：《中国民航大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国民航运输业蓬勃发展,民航安全水平也在不断提升,“民航大国”的称号中国实至名归。美国是世界上民航安全管理最为成功的国家之一,已建成比较完备的民航安全管理体系。系统、科学地分析比较中美两国民航安全的发展规律及其特征,借鉴美国在庞大航空运输量下持续保持良好安全水平的成功经验,有助于持续改进我国的民航安全,加快向民航强国转变的步伐。本研究从民航安全监管部门发展过程、组织机构和安全管理机制等方面对中美两国的民航安全监管进行比较研究。然后选取中美两国民航运输飞行“重大(严重)及以上级别百万小时事故率”、“亿客公里死亡人数”来分别代表两国的民航安全水平,将这两类事故统计指标在1983年-2010年期间的统计数值分别在时域和频域中进行分析,发现中国民航起始安全水平低于美国民航,两国的民航安全水平都呈现总体上升的趋势,中国民航的安全水平提升的幅度更大,提升的速度更快,并在“十五”和“十一五”期间已经超越美国,但是稳定程度不如美国;最后,通过时间序列的谱分析方法验证了1983年-2010年期间中美两国的民航安全确实都存在周期波动规律,并发现中美两国民航运输飞行“重大(严重)及以上级别百万小时事故率”波动主周期分别为3.375年和2.250年,中美两国民航运输飞行“亿客公里死亡人数”波动主周期同为2.250年,并且美国民航安全水平波动规律性比中国民航更一致。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's civil aviation transportation industry has developed vigorously, and the level of civil aviation safety has been continuously improved. China is worthy of the title of "civil aviation power". The United States is one of the most successful civil aviation safety management countries in the world, and has built a relatively complete civil aviation security management system. Systematically, scientifically analyzing and comparing the development rules and characteristics of civil aviation safety between China and the United States, and drawing lessons from the successful experience of the United States in maintaining a good level of civil aviation safety under a large volume of air traffic, it is helpful to continuously improve the civil aviation safety of our country. Speed up the pace of transformation into a strong civil aviation country. This study makes a comparative study on the civil aviation safety supervision in China and the United States from the development process, organization and safety management mechanism of the civil aviation safety supervision department. And then select China and the United States civil aviation transport flights "major (serious) and above million hours accident rate", "100 million kilometers of death" to represent the level of civil aviation safety of the two countries, The statistical values of these two kinds of accident statistics are analyzed in time domain and frequency domain respectively from 1983 to 2010. It is found that the initial safety level of China's civil aviation is lower than that of American civil aviation, and the level of civil aviation safety in both countries shows an overall upward trend. The level of safety of China's civil aviation has increased by a larger margin and the pace of improvement has been faster. It has already surpassed the United States during the 10th Five-Year Plan and the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, but the degree of stability is not as good as that of the United States. Finally, Through the spectral analysis of time series, it is verified that the civil aviation safety of China and the United States did exist periodic fluctuations between 1983 and 2010. It is also found that the main cycles of the fluctuation of the "major (severe) and more million hours accident rate" in China and the United States are 3.375 years and 2.250 years, respectively, and the main period of fluctuation of the "death toll of 100 million passenger kilometers" of the two countries' civil aviation transport flights is both 2250 years. And the American civil aviation safety level fluctuation regularity is more consistent than the Chinese civil aviation.
【学位授予单位】：中国民航大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F562;F567.12

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