油轮投资风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-05-11 09:41

本文选题：油轮投资 + 投资风险　；参考：《大连海事大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济的快速增长,对石油资源的消费进一步增加。油轮凭借运输量大、运费率低、可以长距离运输等优势,已经成为国际间石油运输的首选。油轮投资活动是油轮企业扩大船队规模、提高核心竞争力的重要措施。然而,油轮投资往往伴随着巨额的资本流动,并且油轮投资受到国际经济形势和国际贸易量等因素影响很大,具有投资风险大、投资回收期长等特点。鉴于油轮投资的特点,应运用科学的风险评价方法,对油轮投资风险评价是十分必要的。但是如何对油轮投资过程中存在的各种风险进行识别、进而进行风险评价,最终为决策者提供理论依据,是油轮企业必须面临和解决的问题。本文首先回顾了国内外关于油轮企业及油轮投资风险方面的研究动态,并对油轮投资内涵、油轮投资市场和油轮投资分融资方式进行分析。其次,对油轮投资风险进行分析,简要介绍了风险涵义以及油轮投资风险产生的原因。为下文的油轮投资风险分析做理论铺垫。然后提出油轮投资风险评价理论,进一步分析了油轮投资所涉及的风险,并建立基于模糊理论的DEA油轮投资风险评价模型。最后以油轮企业进行油轮投资的多个备选项目为例,运用此模型对油轮投资风险进行评价,验证模型的有效性,并将评价结果与实际情况进行比较,提出风险控制方案。本文系统介绍了油轮投资风险理论,将模糊综合评价方法与数据包络分析(DEA)结合,构建基于模糊理论的DEA油轮投资风险评价模型,并运用此模型对油轮投资所涉及的风险进行了全面的评价。本文建立的油轮投资风险评价模型可以为油轮投资者进行油轮投资提供有意义的参考,这对我国油轮企业进行风险投资提供借鉴作用。
[Abstract]:With the rapid growth of China's economy, the consumption of oil resources has further increased. Oil tankers have become the first choice of international oil transportation because of their advantages such as large volume, low freight rate, long distance transportation and so on. Tanker investment is an important measure for tanker enterprises to expand their fleet size and improve their core competitiveness. However, oil tanker investment is often accompanied by a huge capital flow, and oil tanker investment is greatly affected by the international economic situation and international trade volume, with the characteristics of high investment risk and long payback period. In view of the characteristics of oil tanker investment, it is necessary to use scientific risk assessment method to evaluate oil tanker investment risk. However, how to identify the various risks in the process of oil tanker investment, and then evaluate the risks, and finally provide the theoretical basis for the decision makers, is the problem that oil tanker enterprises must face and solve. This paper first reviews the research trends of tanker enterprises and their investment risks at home and abroad, and analyzes the connotation of oil tanker investment, the tanker investment market and the sub-financing mode of tanker investment. Secondly, the risk of oil tanker investment is analyzed, the meaning of risk and the reason of the risk are introduced briefly. For the following oil tanker investment risk analysis to do theoretical groundwork. Then the theory of oil tanker investment risk evaluation is put forward, the risk involved in tanker investment is further analyzed, and the DEA oil tanker investment risk evaluation model based on fuzzy theory is established. Finally, taking several alternative projects of tanker investment for example, the model is used to evaluate the risk of oil tanker investment, to verify the effectiveness of the model, and to compare the evaluation results with the actual situation, and put forward a risk control scheme. In this paper, the theory of tanker investment risk is introduced systematically, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is combined with data envelopment analysis (DEAA) to construct the DEA oil tanker investment risk evaluation model based on fuzzy theory. The model is used to evaluate the risk involved in oil tanker investment. The risk evaluation model of oil tanker investment established in this paper can provide a meaningful reference for tanker investors to carry out oil tanker investment, which can be used as a reference for oil tanker enterprises in our country.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F552;F224

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