国际工程市场中中国高铁项目的政治风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-06-01 06:15

本文选题：高铁项目 + 国际工程　；参考：《东南大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着2009年高铁“走出去”战略、2013年“一带一路”战略构想,以及2016年“中国制造2025”战略的提出,中国高铁“走出去”面临着宝贵的发展机遇。目前,中国已与30多个国家签署了高铁合作意向书或协议书。但与此同时,国际市场上的政治风险也给中国高铁承包商造成了灾难性损失。遗憾的是,政治风险并未引起足够的重视,很多中国高铁承包商的海外开拓风险管理计划,甚至就没有政治风险的考量。因此,有必要对中国高铁“走出去”的政治风险进行定性和定量研究,使中国高铁在规避政治风险的前提下更好地走入国际市场。本文的研究是在对国际工程市场中中国高铁项目政治风险影响因素识别的基础上,分析海外高铁项目政治风险的形成机理,提出海外高铁项目政治风险评价方法并构建相应的对策体系。首先,通过文献综述和案例识别国际工程市场中中国高铁项目的6种政治风险事件,进而通过16个海外高铁项目案例的详细数据,借助扎根理论,识别出影响政治风险事件的26个高铁项目政治风险影响因素。再而,运用文献研究和案例推理构建高铁项目政治风险的解释结构模型,分析因素之间的相互影响关系以及因素引发政治风险事件,并导致一定后果的政治风险形成机理。之后,在政治风险形成机理分析的基础上得到了政治风险形成路径,将这些路径汇总得到国际工程市场中中国高铁项目政治风险的影响图,其中以企业经营特性、文化差异、国际竞争、国际经济稳定性、国际政策变化、腐败、党派之争、项目需求程度为8个独立结点,政治风险为价值结点,成为模糊影响图评价的基础,通过专家咨询和世界银行等数据库的资料确定独立结点的频率状态以及紧前结点对紧后结点的模糊函数,并以新马高铁项目为例分析模糊影响图评价方法的有效性和可操作性。最后,从政治风险的形成路径出发,在源头政治风险影响因素、过程政治风险影响因素、和政治风险事件发生的三个阶段从国家、企业、项目层面提出防范对策控制海外高铁项目的政治风险。本文的研究结果一定程度上丰富了国际工程项目政治风险及其管理的研究体系,构建的海外高铁项目政治风险评价及对策体系能够为中国高铁承包商开拓海外市场应对政治风险提供可行且有效的决策支持。
[Abstract]:With the "going out" strategy in 2009, the strategic concept of "Belt and Road" in 2013 and the "made in China 2025" strategy in 2016, China's high-speed rail "going out" faces valuable development opportunities. At present, China has signed letters of intent or agreements with more than 30 countries on high-speed rail cooperation. At the same time, political risks on international markets have caused disastrous losses for Chinese high-speed rail contractors. Unfortunately, political risk has not been taken seriously enough, and many Chinese high-speed rail contractors' overseas development risk management plans have not even been taken into account. Therefore, it is necessary to qualitatively and quantitatively study the political risk of China's high-speed rail "going out", so that China's high-speed rail can better enter the international market on the premise of avoiding political risks. Based on the identification of political risk factors of Chinese high-speed rail projects in the international engineering market, this paper analyzes the formation mechanism of political risks in overseas high-speed rail projects. The political risk evaluation method of overseas high-speed railway project is put forward and the corresponding countermeasure system is constructed. First of all, through literature review and case identification of six political risk events of Chinese high-speed rail projects in the international engineering market, and then through the detailed data of 16 overseas high-speed rail projects, with the help of rooted theory, Identify 26 high-speed railway project political risk factors that affect political risk events. Then, the paper uses literature research and case-based reasoning to construct the explanatory structure model of the political risk of the high-speed rail project, analyzes the mutual influence between the factors and the political risk events caused by the factors, and leads to the formation mechanism of the political risk with certain consequences. After that, on the basis of the analysis of the formation mechanism of political risk, the formation path of political risk is obtained, and the influence chart of political risk of Chinese high-speed rail project in international engineering market is obtained, which is based on the characteristics of enterprise management and cultural differences. International competition, international economic stability, international policy change, corruption, party contention, the degree of project demand is 8 independent nodes, political risk is the value node, which becomes the basis of fuzzy impact map evaluation. The frequency state of independent nodes and the fuzzy function between the former node and the back node are determined by expert consultation and the data of database such as the World Bank. The effectiveness and maneuverability of the evaluation method of fuzzy impact diagram are analyzed with the example of Xinma-Malaysia High Speed Railway Project. Finally, starting from the formation path of political risk, at the source of political risk influencing factors, process political risk influencing factors, and political risk events occurring in the three stages from the country, enterprises, Project level proposed preventive measures to control the political risks of overseas high-speed rail projects. To some extent, the research results of this paper have enriched the research system of political risk and management of international engineering projects. The political risk evaluation and countermeasure system of overseas high-speed rail projects can provide feasible and effective decision support for Chinese high-speed rail contractors to open up overseas markets to deal with political risks.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F532;F125

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