中国海洋交通运输产业演化机制研究

发布时间：2018-06-07 04:53

本文选题：海洋交通运输业 + 协同演化　；参考：《中国海洋大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：海洋交通运输业是我国的基础产业，该产业经由航海活动实现的人和物的空间转移，是人类生产、生活与活动不可或缺的重要基础。同时，它也是一种战略性产业，是有效参与全球资源与市场配置的重要手段。贸易活动的频繁进行以及其他相关产业的发展对海洋交通运输产业提出了更高的要求。为此，我们需要从历史的角度探讨海洋交通运输业发展壮大的原因，以实现产业的优化。这就需要对我国海洋交通运输业进行演化研究。本文则是从演化的视角，以自组织理论为框架，研究海洋交通运输业内部各要素和外在因素对于产业整体的驱动作用。内在动力分析上将海洋交通运输系统看成是由技术水平、基础设施建设、从业人数、货运、客运五个子系统相互作用构成的复杂动态系统，其演化主要是各个子系统协同作用的结果。作为子系统的代表因素，本文选取了海上船舶运输总吨、沿海主要港口生产用码头长度、海洋交通运输从业人员、货运量、海洋旅客运输量五个指标，运用灰色关联法和协同演化模型，探究引导海洋交通运输业复杂系统的内在主导因素。同时，分阶段定性分析了影响产业演化的外在动因。最后对产业演化的内、外在动力机制作出说明并提出该产业有序演化的建议。文章的主要结论是：海洋交通运输产业演化是由内、外在动因共同驱动的，内在动因主要是指技术水平、基础设施建设，，从业人员。外在动因有与其他产业的关联、政策变迁、宏观经济变化和海洋灾难和事故。内容安排上分为这样三大部分：第一部分是研究基础，整理了海洋交通运输产业演化的研究成果并做出述评；对自组织研究框架进行概况介绍。第二部分是对海洋交通运输业的全面描述，包含发展历史、政策、现状、特征等内容；第三部分主要是运用协同学模型研究海洋交通运输产业演化问题，找到驱动其发展的主要内在动力因素。此外分析了产业驱动的外在动力。研究方法上采用定性分析与定量分析相结合，使研究结果更加真实可靠。本文的创新之处在于将海洋交通运输产业演化问题看作是由内、外两方面动力因素共同驱动的。内在动力因素研究上，采用实证分析的手法，利用协同演化模型寻找产业内部各个子系统中哪些是主要的，即主导了产业的演进。对于演化机制的分析也是融入了内外各种因素。不足之处在于我国海洋交通运输产业数据缺失较为严重，且开始有记录的年份较晚，导致样本量没有像普通陆域产业那样多，结果可能会随着时间的推移，数据的不断丰富更加精确。
[Abstract]:Ocean transportation industry is the basic industry of our country. It is an indispensable foundation for human production, life and activity. At the same time, it is also a strategic industry, which is an important means to participate in the allocation of global resources and markets. The frequent trade activities and the development of other related industries put forward higher requirements for the maritime transportation industry. Therefore, we need to explore the reasons for the development of marine transportation industry from the historical point of view, in order to achieve industrial optimization. It is necessary to study the evolution of marine transportation industry in China. Based on the theory of self-organization, this paper studies the internal and external factors of marine transportation industry as a whole from the perspective of evolution. The inherent dynamic analysis regards the ocean transportation system as a complex dynamic system composed of five subsystems: technological level, infrastructure construction, number of employees, freight transport and passenger transport. Its evolution is mainly the result of the cooperation of each subsystem. As a representative factor of the subsystem, this paper selects five indexes: total tonnage of marine shipping, length of production wharf in major coastal ports, personnel engaged in maritime transportation, freight volume, ocean passenger transport volume, etc. By using the grey relation method and the co-evolution model, this paper explores the internal dominant factors leading to the complex system of marine transportation and transportation. At the same time, it analyzes the external causes of industrial evolution in stages. Finally, the internal and external dynamic mechanism of industrial evolution is explained and suggestions for orderly evolution of industry are put forward. The main conclusion of this paper is that the evolution of marine transportation industry is driven by internal and external drivers, and the internal motivation mainly refers to the level of technology, infrastructure construction and employees. External drivers are related to other industries, policy changes, macroeconomic changes and marine disasters and accidents. The content arrangement is divided into three parts as follows: the first part is the research foundation, collating the research results of marine transportation industry evolution and making a review; the self-organizing research framework is introduced. The second part is a comprehensive description of marine transportation, including development history, policy, current situation, characteristics, etc. The third part mainly uses Synergetic model to study the evolution of ocean transportation industry. Find out the main internal driving force that drives its development. In addition, the external driving force of industry is analyzed. Qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis are used to make the results more reliable. The innovation of this paper is that the evolution of marine transportation industry is driven by both internal and external dynamic factors. In the study of internal dynamic factors, we use the co-evolution model to find out which subsystems are the main ones, that is, to lead the evolution of the industry. The analysis of evolution mechanism is also integrated with internal and external factors. The deficiency lies in the fact that the lack of data in China's maritime transportation industry is relatively serious, and that the year in which records began to be recorded is relatively late, resulting in less sample size than in ordinary land industries, and the result may be over time. The constant enrichment of data is more accurate.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F552.3

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