基于吞吐量预测及吞吐能力适应性分析的青岛港发展策略研究

发布时间：2018-06-07 08:43

本文选题：青岛港 + 吞吐量预测　；参考：《中国海洋大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着国际间贸易往来日益频繁，港口的重要作用和突出地位开始受到日益广泛地关注，为了在竞争中争取有利位置，在国家港口管理权限下放的有利背景下，各大港口建设规模骤然升级，纷纷投入大量资金进行大型深水化及专业化泊位的建设。作为太平洋西海岸重要的国际贸易口岸和海上运输枢纽，近几年来，，青岛港凭借其良好的自身优势及发展势头，已成为我国仅次于上海、深圳的第三大集装箱运输港口。但与此同时，青岛港也面临着内外交困的激烈竞争局面。由于缺乏科学分工，周边港口争先上马矿石、集装箱以及煤炭码头，青岛港的优势货种吞吐量受到弱化的风险，对其发展造成了巨大的压力。面对这样的局面，青岛港要想获得可持续的发展，就应在全面掌握港口发展现状和对未来进行合理预测的基础上，因地制宜地寻求一种符合港口自身情况的发展策略。在全面深入地了解港口现状和科学预测港口未来发展趋势的基础上，合理进行港口发展规划并制定具有针对性的港口发展战略是各港口在发展过程中需要探索的重要内容。而这其中重要的一项就是对港口吞吐量进行分析和预测。本文将以青岛港为研究对象，在对其港口吞吐量以及货种进行分析的基础上，全面掌握其发展现状，明确其主要的优势货种。在此基础上，采用基于灰色预测模型和BP人工神经网络模型构建的组合预测模型对青岛港的货物吞吐量及主要货种的吞吐量进行科学预测，从而合理掌握青岛港未来的发展趋势。最后，本文将几个主要货种的吞吐量与青岛港现有的专业泊位的设计吞吐能力进行了比较对其泊位吞吐能力的适应性进行了分析。并在以上分析得出的相关结论的基础上，对青岛港未来的发展提出了相应的建议和策略。
[Abstract]:With the increasingly frequent international trade, the important role and prominent position of the port has been paid more and more attention. In order to gain a favorable position in the competition, under the favorable background of the decentralization of the national port management authority, The large port construction scale suddenly upgraded, one after another invested a lot of funds for the construction of large deep water and specialized berths. As an important international trade port and maritime transportation hub on the west coast of the Pacific Ocean, Qingdao Port has become the third largest container transportation port in China after Shanghai and Shenzhen in recent years. But at the same time, Qingdao Port is also facing internal and diplomatic difficulties of fierce competition. Due to the lack of scientific division of labor, there is a risk of weakening the throughput of superior cargo types in the surrounding ports such as ore, containers and coal terminals, which has caused great pressure on its development. In the face of such a situation, if Qingdao Port wants to obtain sustainable development, it should seek a development strategy according to local conditions on the basis of comprehensively mastering the present situation of port development and making reasonable prediction on the future. On the basis of understanding the present situation of the port and predicting the future development trend of the port scientifically, it is an important content for each port to explore in the course of its development by rationally carrying out the port development plan and formulating the relevant port development strategy. One of the most important is the analysis and prediction of port throughput. This paper will take Qingdao Port as the research object, on the basis of the analysis of its port throughput and cargo type, fully grasp its development status and make clear its main superior cargo species. On this basis, the combined forecasting model based on grey forecasting model and BP artificial neural network model is used to forecast the throughput of cargo and the throughput of main kinds of cargo in Qingdao Port scientifically. In order to reasonably grasp the future development trend of Qingdao Port. Finally, the throughput of several major cargo types is compared with the designed throughput capacity of the existing specialized berths in Qingdao Port. The adaptability of the berth throughput capacity is analyzed. On the basis of the above conclusions, some suggestions and strategies are put forward for the future development of Qingdao Port.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F552

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