北极航线经济圈贸易网络的靴襻渗流模型分析

发布时间：2018-06-08 12:55

本文选题：北极航线 + 北极航线经济圈　；参考：《大连海事大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：北极航线开通指日可待,它连接了欧洲、北美、东北亚三个经济贸易最活跃区域,使三者之间的运输距离大幅度缩短,具有极为特殊的地理优势。它不仅可以成为新的海洋交通大动脉,而且还可能此为纽带形成一个以东亚、北美和欧洲为主体的北极航线经济圈,进而深刻影响世界经济和贸易格局。本文结合复杂网络的分析方法,提出基于北极航线经济圈贸易网络的靴襻渗流模型,以东北航线作为重点研究对象,建立一个由两部分节点组成的权重二分网,通过对中心度、初始状态活跃比例、阙值及相变现象等的分析,对北极航线经济圈贸易网络的结构和演化进行了研究,得出北极全面通航后理论上的北极航线经济圈贸易网络,最后对初始活跃比例和阙值等进行了灵敏度分析,解释贸易网络的一些基本现象及其所反映的现实意义,进一步印证研究的价值和合理性,对国家贸易政策制定提供有一定的帮助作用。结果表明:随着北极航线开通条件的逐渐具备,影响世界航运格局的各个因素也将会因为北极航线开通而发生一定的变化,甚至还有可能发生意想不到的变化。中国正好位于北极航线所影响的范围之内,它的开通对我国影响也将是十分巨大的。从现实条件出发,寻求北极战略选择已迫在眉睫,我国可选择“积极争取,充分参与”的北极战略,即:(1)积极打造北极航运中心,完善ATN贸易体系,支持相关企业发展,积极构建北极航线经济环境生态圈;(2)适当调整产业布局,以市场为导向,统筹北方港口协调发展,为ATN提供完善的硬件保障;(3)加强对目前潜在贸易伙伴(如芬兰,瑞典)的双边合作,紧密结合“一带一路”战略,为将来构建“北极航线经济圈战略”做铺垫。作为北极航线经济圈贸易参与国的中国,北极航线使中国与北美洲、欧洲等地区其他贸易参与国之间的经贸联系更加方便、紧密,航线的开通将对中国的对外经济贸易联系和战略安全等方面产生重大影响。同时,应该考虑将北极航线的开发利用与正在实施中的“一带一路”政策相结合,尝试利用二者优势取长补短,构成海洋运输和陆路运输相联动的综合交通运输网络,促进我国全域全要素均衡发展。总而言之,北极航线的开通对于中国来说是一次难得的机遇,国家在制定相关经济发展规划时应充分考虑北极航线开通和北极航线经济圈形成后可能带来的影响,及时采取具有前瞻性的经济策略。
[Abstract]:The opening of the Arctic route is available. It connects the three most active areas of economy and trade in Europe, North America and Northeast Asia, which makes the transport distance between the three people greatly shortened and has a very special geographical advantage. It can not only become a new marine traffic artery, but also can form a link in East Asia, North America and Europe. The economic circle of the Arctic route has a profound influence on the world economy and trade pattern. This paper, based on the analysis method of complex network, puts forward the seepage model of the boot loop based on the trade network of the Arctic route economic circle. It takes the Northeast route as the key research object and establishes a weight two net composed of two parts. The structure and evolution of the trade network of the Arctic route economic circle are studied, and the trade network of the Arctic route economic circle is obtained. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of the initial active proportion and the threshold value is carried out to explain some basic current of the trade network. The value and rationality of the study will be further confirmed by the image and its practical significance. The results show that with the gradual availability of the conditions for the opening of the Arctic route, the various factors affecting the world shipping pattern will also change to a certain extent, even for the opening of the Arctic route. There may also be an unexpected change. China is just within the scope of the Arctic route, and its opening to China will be very great. From the realistic conditions, it is imminent to seek the strategic choice of the Arctic. China can choose "actively strive for, fully participate in" the Arctic strategy, that is (1) actively build the Arctic voyage. Transport center, perfect the ATN trade system, support the development of related enterprises, and actively build the economic environment ecosphere of the Arctic route; (2) adjust the industrial layout properly, take the market as the guidance, coordinate the coordinated development of the northern port, provide the ATN with the perfect hardware support; (3) strengthen the bilateral cooperation on the potential trade partners (such as Finland, Sweden), and closely combine "The Belt and Road" strategy for the future construction of the Arctic route economic circle strategy to pave the way. As the Arctic route in the economic circle of trade in China, the China Arctic route from North America, Europe and other regions to participate in other trade in the trade relationship between the more convenient, close to the route will China foreign economic trade union Have a significant impact and strategic security. At the same time, should consider the development and utilization of the Arctic route is combined with the implementation of the "The Belt and Road" policy, try to use the two advantages, integrated transportation and ocean transport and land transport linkage of the transport network, and promote the balanced development of China's global total factor. In a word, the opening of the Arctic route is a rare opportunity for China. The state should fully consider the possible impact of the opening of the Arctic route and the formation of the economic circle of the Arctic route in the formulation of the related economic development plan, and take a timely and forward-looking economic strategy.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F551;F742

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