铁路货运收益管理理论与方法研究

发布时间：2018-06-13 23:20

本文选题：铁路货运 + 收益管理　；参考：《中南大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：收益管理起源于航空客运业,经过长期的发展已经被广泛应用,本文通过研究发现我国的铁路货运业具备应用收益管理的基本特征,故将收益管理引入到我国铁路货运业来提高铁路货运收益,并对收益管理中的需求预测问题、定价问题、超订问题做重点研究。首先,分析我国铁路货运市场引入收益管理思想的必要性,并研究其引入收益管理的可行性。结果表明：我国铁路货运市场符合应用收益管理的基本条件,铁路货运与航空运输具有高度的相似性,因此在我国铁路货运市场中实行收益管理是可行的。在需求预测方面,采用对ARMA预测、多元回归预测、灰色预测的最优加权组合预测对我国铁路货运短期需求进行预测,组合预测能克服单项预测存在的缺陷,提高预测精度。在定价方面,根据销售形式不同将铁路运力销售分为协议销售和自由销售,在进行协议销售定价时,引入铁路运力期权的概念,并对运力期权进行定价来实现“动态定价”,从而最大程度的实现收益的最大化；在进行自由销售定价时,引入货物运输的时效性因素,并对其在不同时刻进行“动态定价”,最大程度的实现收益的最大化。最后设定相关参数,通过数值仿真验证模型和方法的可行性。最后研究考虑超订的铁路货运运力分配,本文在传统的超订模型上考虑货主的满意度因素,建立考虑货主满意度的铁路货运超订模型并对其进行实例应用。本文所做工作,旨在探索分析铁路货运应用收益管理的理论与方法,希望收益管理思想能够为铁路货运作出收益贡献。
[Abstract]:Revenue management originated from the air passenger transport industry and has been widely used after a long period of development. This paper finds that the railway freight transport industry in China has the basic characteristics of the application of revenue management through research. Therefore, the revenue management is introduced into the railway freight industry to improve the railway freight revenue, and the demand forecasting, pricing and overbooking problems in the revenue management are studied emphatically. Firstly, the necessity of introducing revenue management into railway freight market is analyzed, and the feasibility of introducing revenue management is studied. The results show that the railway freight market in China accords with the basic conditions of the application of revenue management, and the railway freight and air transport have a high similarity, so it is feasible to carry out the revenue management in the railway freight market of our country. In the aspect of demand forecasting, ARMA forecast, multivariate regression forecast and the optimal weighted combination forecast of grey forecast are used to forecast the short-term demand of railway freight transport in China. The combined forecast can overcome the defects of single forecast and improve the forecast precision. In the aspect of pricing, railway capacity sales is divided into agreement sale and free sale according to different sales forms. In the process of pricing, the concept of railway capacity option is introduced, and the capacity option is priced to realize "dynamic pricing". In order to maximize the revenue, we introduce the timeliness factor of goods transportation, and "dynamic pricing" at different times to maximize the revenue. Finally, the relevant parameters are set and the feasibility of the model and method is verified by numerical simulation. Finally, considering the overbooking of railway freight capacity distribution, this paper considers the factors of cargo owner's satisfaction in the traditional overbooking model, establishes the railway freight overbooking model considering the cargo owner's satisfaction, and applies it to an example. The purpose of this paper is to explore and analyze the theory and method of revenue management in railway freight transport, hoping that the revenue management idea can contribute to the revenue of railway freight transport.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F532;U294

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