道路工程项目风险评估系统研究

发布时间：2018-06-15 16:34

本文选题：道路施工企业 + 风险评估　；参考：《西南交通大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：道路施工市场是一个瞬息万变的市场,道路施工企业风险无处不在,构建针对道路施工企业特点的、层次明了的、操作性强的科学的风险评估控制模型,对道路施工企业所面临的风险因素进行相应评估,这是非常有必要的。因为这样可以清楚了解道路施工企业最有可能遭遇的风险和对企业损失较大的风险,有利于企业积极部署风险控制措施,减小企业风险损失。本文基于前人的研究基础上,针对道路施工企业所面临的风险因素,本文选择了专家调查评分法和AHP风险分析法构建风险评估模型的框架,为企业提供识别风险、分析风险、应对风险的操作模型。首先,介绍了本文的选题背景,以及道路施工企业的特点及对道路施工企业进行风险评估的主要意义。在分析了国内外风险评估和企业的风险评估工作现状之后,提出了本文主要的工作内容。其次,简单介绍风险的基本概念,企业风险评估的基本理论,道路施工企业风险评估的特点和目的。提出道路施工企业风险评估的基本流程,简单介绍道路施工企业风险识别和风险评估的基本方法,并比较各种方法的优缺点,通过比较确定专家调查评分法和AHP层次分析法分别作为风险识别和风险评估的基本方法。重点介绍选择的这两种方法的具体操作方法然后,以中国中铁七局集团有限公司为风险评估对象,分别用专家调查评分法和AHP风险分析法建立了企业风险评估模型,设计道路施工企业风险评估的风险识别量表,确定了道路施工企业风险评估主要风险因素,通过AHP风险分析法对其进行分析比较,最后得出重大风险因素,并基于决策者的风险偏好制定相应的控制策略。同时总结全文面对用专家调查评分法和AHP层次分析法建立的施工企业风险评估方法进行相应评价。经过验证,本文中建立的风险评估模型比较适用,专家调查评分法和AHP风险分析法应用于模型中,可以很好的处理道路施工企业在实践中面临的风险因素,可操作性强,可为道路工程施工企业的下一步的决策提供方向和依据。
[Abstract]:The road construction market is a rapidly changing market, and the risk of road construction enterprises is everywhere. A scientific risk assessment and control model, which aims at the characteristics of road construction enterprises, is constructed. It is necessary to evaluate the risk factors faced by road construction enterprises. Because of this, we can clearly understand the most likely risks encountered by road construction enterprises and the larger risks to the enterprises, which is helpful for enterprises to actively deploy risk control measures and reduce enterprise risk losses. Based on the previous research, this paper chooses the expert survey scoring method and AHP risk analysis method to construct the risk assessment model, aiming at the risk factors faced by road construction enterprises, which provides enterprises with risk identification and risk analysis. Operational model for risk management. Firstly, this paper introduces the background of this paper, the characteristics of road construction enterprises and the main significance of risk assessment for road construction enterprises. After analyzing the present situation of risk assessment at home and abroad, this paper puts forward the main contents of this paper. Secondly, it introduces the basic concept of risk, the basic theory of enterprise risk assessment, the characteristics and purpose of road construction enterprise risk assessment. This paper puts forward the basic process of risk assessment of road construction enterprises, introduces the basic methods of risk identification and risk assessment of road construction enterprises, and compares the advantages and disadvantages of various methods. The expert survey scoring method and AHP analytic hierarchy process are respectively used as the basic methods of risk identification and risk assessment. The specific operation methods of these two methods are introduced emphatically. Then, taking China China Railway Group Co., Ltd. as the risk assessment object, the enterprise risk assessment model is established by using the expert investigation scoring method and the AHP risk analysis method, respectively. The risk identification scale of road construction enterprise risk assessment is designed, and the main risk factors of road construction enterprise risk assessment are determined. The risk factors are analyzed and compared by AHP risk analysis method. Finally, the major risk factors are obtained. Based on the risk preference of the decision maker, the corresponding control strategy is developed. At the same time, the paper summarizes the corresponding evaluation of the risk assessment method of construction enterprises established by the method of expert investigation and AHP. After verification, the risk assessment model established in this paper is more suitable, the expert survey scoring method and AHP risk analysis method are applied to the model, which can deal with the risk factors faced by road construction enterprises in practice, and has strong operability. It can provide the direction and basis for the next decision of road engineering construction enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F272.3;F540.3

【参考文献】