铁路大宗货物运价浮动研究

发布时间：2018-06-21 19:19

本文选题：铁路大宗货物 + 运价浮动　；参考：《西南交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：铁路运价作为交通运输业的主要调节杠杆,其运用的合理性,直接关系到铁路运输企业的经营效益和发展前途。作为铁路的重要运输对象,大宗货物运价尤为重要。最近随着铁路货运和供给侧改革,铁总针对大宗货物运价浮动,提出"竞争一口价"、运价下浮策略,并进一步扩大煤炭、石油等大宗品类的运价范围,表明铁路要将大宗货物运价逐步推向市场化,原有的运价调整措施是将重点运输物资运价视为我国宏观调控的手段,已不再适合铁路向企业式经营的运价发展。因此,如何科学合理的调整铁路大宗货物运价,落实铁路大宗货物运价浮动政策,是适应铁路货运和供给侧改革关键的一步。本文首先介绍了研究的背景及意义,在综述国内外研究现状的基础上,明确了研究内容和技术路线。其次,通过分析现行的货物运价调整模式与大宗货物运价浮动政策,指出了我国铁路大宗货物运价浮动在理论技术支撑、响应时效、反映市场特性三方面存在的不足。通过对铁路大宗货物运价浮动的分析,认为运输需求是重要的影响因素,并从运输需求特点入手,发现了利用运输需求的波动性来实现运价浮动的更具实践性。接着,运用运输波动理论,建立X-12-ARIMA模型,将采集的H、G铁路局大宗货物季度运量数据代入,分离出包含有趋势、季节、周期和不规则4个波动成分,逐一分析了各成分的内容、表现、及影响变化的原因,H、G铁路局大宗季度运量波动分析结果包括:需求量波动范围,需求波动的主要影响成分,按季度运量及波动特点划分出高峰和低谷季度。然后,根据运输价格理论和运价浮动原则,建立运价浮动模型,模型分为高峰和低谷季度运价浮动。为了提高大宗货运量与企业经营质量,设立低谷季度以增量、高峰季度以增利为运价浮动的目标,并在国家政策规定的运价上限和维持企业基本经营需求的运价下限之间,讨论了这两季度的最优浮动运价。最后,以H铁路局为例,通过对比运价浮动前后运量与运费收入,验证模型的合理性和可行性,并分析可能存在的经营风险,提出相应指导性调整建议。
[Abstract]:As the main regulating lever of transportation industry, railway freight rate has a direct bearing on the operation benefit and development prospect of railway transportation enterprises. As an important object of railway transportation, bulk freight rates are particularly important. Recently, with the railway freight transport and supply-side reform, iron has put forward the strategy of "competing for one price", the floating strategy of freight rate, and further expanding the range of freight rates for large categories such as coal, oil, etc., in view of the fluctuation of bulk freight rates. It shows that the railway should push the bulk freight rate to the market step by step. The original measure of adjusting the freight rate is to regard the freight rate of the key transportation material as the means of macro-control in our country, and it is no longer suitable for the railway to develop to the enterprise type freight rate. Therefore, how to adjust the railway bulk freight rate scientifically and reasonably, and how to implement the floating policy of railway bulk freight rate is a key step to adapt to the railway freight transport and supply-side reform. This paper first introduces the background and significance of the research, on the basis of summarizing the current research situation at home and abroad, defines the research content and technical route. Secondly, by analyzing the current mode of freight price adjustment and the floating policy of bulk freight rate, the paper points out the shortcomings of China's railway bulk freight price floating in three aspects: theoretical and technical support, response time, and reflection of market characteristics. Based on the analysis of the fluctuation of railway bulk freight rate, it is considered that the transport demand is an important influencing factor, and from the characteristics of transport demand, it is found that the fluctuation of transport demand is more practical to realize the fluctuation of freight rate. Then, the X-12-Arima model is established by using the theory of transport fluctuation, and the collected data of the bulk cargo volume of the HJG Railway Bureau are substituted to separate out four fluctuating components, which are trend, season, period and irregularity. The contents of each component are analyzed one by one. The analysis results include: the fluctuation range of demand, the main components of demand fluctuation, and the peak and low season according to the characteristics of quarterly transport volume and fluctuation. Then, according to the theory of transportation price and the principle of freight rate floating, the model of price floating is established, which is divided into peak and low season freight rate floating. In order to improve the volume of bulk freight and the quality of business operations, the target of floating freight rates is to increase the volume of goods in the lowest season and to increase the profits in the peak seasons, and between the upper limit of freight rates stipulated by the state policy and the lower limit of freight rates to maintain the basic operating needs of enterprises. The optimal floating freight rates for these two quarters are discussed. Finally, taking H Railway Bureau as an example, the rationality and feasibility of the model are verified by comparing the freight volume and freight income before and after the freight rate fluctuates, and the possible operational risks are analyzed, and the corresponding guiding adjustment suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F532.5

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