高速公路通行费收入预测方法及应用研究

发布时间：2018-07-04 10:15

本文选题：高速公路 + 通行费收入　；参考：《重庆交通大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：高速公路通行费收入预测研究在我国高速公路路网建设过程中和项目的可行性研究等方面具有着重要的意义。高速公路通行费收入预测主要考虑两个方面的因素：一是收费政策,二是交通量。首先,本文主要从预测基础、预测原则、预测指标以及预测方法等方面入手,对高速公路通行费收入的预测过程进行了分析和研究,确定了高速公路通行费收入预测过程中的重要指标和样本数据采集方法。其次,对不同类型的收费公路进行了属性定义,剖析了高速公路通行费价格形成机制,阐述了收费公路通行费定价的原则和需考虑的因素,详细说明了收费公路的主要定价方法；再次,介绍了高速公路按计重收费和车型收费的两种收费标准,分析了高速公路计重收费标准模式和车型收费标准的科学合理性和实施效果。无论是制定按车型收费标准还是制定计重收费标准,我国在一定时期内将通行标准作为常量来对待。然后,介绍了高速公路通行费收入预测过程中所涉及的公路交通量,并分析了高速公路交通量预测应遵循的原则。分析了各种交通量的形成机理和影响因素,深入剖析了高速公路交通量的四种预测方法,为通行费收入预测奠定了基础。最后,理论联系实际,以重庆成渝高速公路通行费收入的预测为实例对本文的研究方法进行解释和阐述。本文的最终目的是通过对高速公路通行费收入预测的过程、步骤和方法的研究,力求进一步完善高速公路通行费收入的预测工作,使得通行费收入的预测结果能对道路建设项目回购费用的测算、可行性研究、评估等提供可靠的理论基础。
[Abstract]:The study of toll revenue prediction is of great significance in the process of highway network construction and the feasibility study of the project in China. There are two main factors in toll revenue prediction: one is toll policy, the other is traffic volume. First of all, this paper mainly from the prediction basis, forecasting principles, forecasting indicators and forecasting methods and other aspects of the highway toll revenue forecasting process is analyzed and studied. The important indexes and sample data collection methods in the process of toll revenue prediction are determined. Secondly, it defines the attribute of different types of toll roads, analyzes the mechanism of toll pricing, expounds the principle of toll pricing and the factors to be considered. The main pricing methods of toll roads are explained in detail. Thirdly, two kinds of toll standards are introduced, This paper analyzes the scientific rationality and implementation effect of toll standard model and vehicle type toll standard for expressway. No matter how to make the charge standard according to the vehicle type or the charge standard for weight calculation, our country will treat the prevailing standard as constant in a certain period. Then, the paper introduces the highway traffic volume involved in the process of highway toll revenue prediction, and analyzes the principles that should be followed in highway traffic volume prediction. The forming mechanism and influencing factors of various traffic volume are analyzed, and four forecasting methods of expressway traffic volume are deeply analyzed, which lays a foundation for toll revenue prediction. Finally, combining theory with practice, taking the forecast of toll revenue of Chongqing Chengdu-Chongqing Expressway as an example, the research method of this paper is explained and expounded. The ultimate purpose of this paper is to further improve the prediction of toll revenue by studying the process, steps and methods of toll revenue prediction. The prediction results of toll revenue can provide a reliable theoretical basis for the calculation, feasibility study and evaluation of the repurchase cost of road construction projects.
【学位授予单位】：重庆交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F542;F224

【参考文献】