基于需求预测的轨道交通备件库存控制研究

发布时间：2018-07-10 02:44

本文选题：上海地铁 + 备件分类　；参考：《上海交通大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：上海轨道交通，又称上海地铁，其第一条线路于1994年12月12日正式运营，是继北京地铁、广州地铁建成通车后中国内地投入运营的第三个城市轨道交通系统，也是目前中国线路最长的城市轨道交通系统。截至2012年9月1日，上海轨道交通线网已开通运营11条线、287座车站，运营里程达420公里，目前位居全国第一。轨道交通系统的扩大意味着对备件维修和更换要求的提高，然而经过调研发现目前上海地铁物流中心的备件库存控制存在颇多缺点，本文就其中集中存在的三大问题进行了讨论、计算与分析。第二章对地铁备件分类提出了用多项指标综合评价进行分类的方法，而不再是传统的价值分类法，并进行了实际分类计算；第三章重点对需求预测提出了不同的预测方法，对需求间断性强的备件提出了改进算法的贝叶斯预测方法，对需求呈连续型的备件提出了分别适应各种分布情况的预测方法，包括指数平滑法，回归分析法和周期系数法，同时也进行了实际数据的计算与分析，并对文中提出的算法编写了相应的程序以方便计算；第四章分析了库存控制中比较重要的安全库存，提出了基于备件损坏统计和曲线拟合的备件整体可靠度计算方法，并根据该可靠度建立了安全库存系数以防止关键备件的缺货，进而对分类出的不同备件，提出了不同的库存策略，建立了不同的库存控制模型进行有效的控制，并对文中提出的模型和一些计算方法编写了相应的程序以方便计算。综上所述，本文在解决当前上海地铁物流中心存在的问题上提出了相应的办法，，并紧密地与实际情况相连接，有一定的实际参考价值。
[Abstract]:Shanghai rail transit, also known as the Shanghai subway, its first line is officially operated in December 12, 1994. It is the third urban rail transit system that has been put into operation in China after the completion of the Beijing subway and the Guangzhou subway has been opened. It is also the longest urban rail transit system in China. As of September 1, 2012, the Shanghai rail transit line The network has opened and operated 11 lines, 287 stations, with a mileage of 420 km, ranking the first in the country.
The expansion of the rail transit system means the improvement of the maintenance and replacement of spare parts. However, it is found that there are many shortcomings in the inventory control of the spare parts of the Shanghai subway logistics center. This paper discusses the three major problems which exist in it, and the second chapter puts forward several indexes for the classification of subway spare parts. The method of classification is synthetically evaluated, not the traditional value classification method, and the actual classification calculation is carried out. The third chapter puts forward different forecasting methods for the demand forecast, and puts forward the Bayesian prediction method of the improved algorithm for the spare parts with strong demand. The prediction methods of distribution, including exponential smoothing, regression analysis and periodic coefficient, also carry out the calculation and analysis of the actual data, and write the corresponding program to facilitate calculation. The fourth chapter analyzes the important safety stock in the inventory control, and puts forward the statistics of the spare parts damage and the statistics of the spare parts. According to the reliability degree, the safety inventory coefficient is established to prevent the shortage of key spare parts, and the different inventory strategies are put forward to different spare parts. The different inventory control models are established and the model and some calculation methods are put forward in this paper. The corresponding program is written to facilitate the calculation.
To sum up, this paper puts forward the corresponding measures to solve the existing problems of the current Shanghai Metro logistics center, and is closely connected with the actual situation, and has certain practical reference value.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F259.23;F572;U239.5

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