交通项目PPP模式全寿命周期关键风险决策研究

发布时间：2018-07-11 11:11

本文选题：PPP项目 + 交通项目　；参考：《西南交通大学》2017年博士论文

【摘要】：PPP (Public Private Partnership,即政府与社会资本合作)模式,在新型城镇化建设需求强劲、我国经济发展全面进入“新常态”的大背景下,成为了基建投融资改革的重要方向。交通项目投资规模大,涉及范围广,技术难度高,时间跨度长,参与者之间关系错综复杂,项目风险极大,这些特点使其极为适合采用PPP模式,但同时,也带来了诸多风险决策难题。交通PPP项目从项目前期阶段、建设阶段直至运营阶段,各阶段均伴随着决定项目成败的关键风险决策问题。这些关键风险决策问题所处阶段不同、产生机理各异,不能一概而论。本文梳理出了项目全寿命周期各阶段的关键风险决策问题,结合我国四个典型交通工程实例:温州瓯江北口综合交通PPP项目、成都市第二绕城高速公路PPP项目、成都市地铁18号线PPP项目和西堠门跨海大桥为工程实例,针对项目寿命周期内各阶段关键风险决策问题展开研究。1.在文献研究和案例分析的基础上,识别出了项目的初步风险清单,结合我国工程实例以专家访谈的方式对初步清单进行了改进,获得了交通PPP项目风险清单;通过问卷调查的方式获取了数据,以SPSS、Mplus等软件为工具,分别用一半数据样本对清单中的风险因素作了探索性因子分析和验证性因子分析,划分出了 8个新维度,利用最大方差法旋转成分矩阵,将因子命名,验证性因子分析验证了提取因子的有效性;计算了各因子得分系数,根据因子贡献率构建了综合因子得分公式,结合成都市第二绕城PPP项目数据求得了各因子得分及综合因子得分,根据得分结果对公因子做了详细分析。2.针对交通PPP项目前期阶段风险分担方案决策问题,把前文研究获取的风险清单作为评价指标体系,引入云模型理论设计了一种风险分担方案决策方法。提出了一套基于云厚度的循环改进打分法,解决了现有方法少数派意见容易被统计结果忽略的问题。以Matlab软件为工具,通过编程实现了模型的计算并输出了项目风险分担方案决策的三维云图。结合成都市第二绕城高速PPP项目为工程实例进行了实证研究,证实了方法的有效性。3.针对交通PPP项目前期阶段融资方案决策问题,构建了一套适用于交通PPP项目的融资方案指标评审体系和一种基于粗糙集理论的融资方案决策方法,运用遗传模拟退火方法对数据进行了离散化处理,基于粗糙集理论来对各影响因素进行合理的约简筛选,利用基于粗糙集和条件信息熵的方法计算约简后的指标评审体系中属性的权重,代入灰色关联分析法中求得灰色关联度,根据关联度的大小对各方案进行评价。结合成都地铁18号线PPP项目为工程实例进行实证研究,证实了方法的有效性。4.对于项目建设阶段风险应对策略决策问题,在分析交通PPP项目建设阶段发生风险元事件时项目系统中各因素变化情况的基础上,构建了相应的动态风险SD模型,结合成都市第二绕城高速公路PPP项目为工程实例,运用VensimDSS软件进行了模型检验,并模拟了风险元和风险涟漪通过作用于项目内部结构对项目整体目标产生动态影响的过程。通过单因素影响力分析、多因素耦合效应分析及政策设计三个分析角度层层推进,探讨了不同风险应对策略在改善项目整体目标方面的效果。5.针对交通PPP项目运营阶段应急风险决策问题,基于GPS卫星定位技术、RS遥感技术、车载终端PDA等技术,以开发软件Visual Studio 2005、数据库软件SQL server2005为工具,构建了一套交通PPP项目运营阶段应急风险决策支持系统,并结合实际数据,给出了系统的具体应用流程。本文研究成果可为任一交通PPP项目、寿命周期不同阶段的关键风险决策问题提供参考。
[Abstract]:The model of PPP (Public Private Partnership, that is, the cooperation between government and social capital), has strong demand in the new urbanization construction. Under the background of the "new normal", China's economic development has become an important direction of the investment and financing reform of infrastructure construction. The investment scale of the traffic project is large, the technical difficulty is high, the time span is long, and the participants are long. The relationship is complex and the project risk is great. These characteristics make it very suitable for the use of PPP model, but at the same time, it also brings a lot of risk decision problems. The traffic PPP project from the early stage of the project, the construction stage to the operation stage, each stage is accompanied by the key risk decision problem that determines the failure of the project. These key risk decision questions are asked. In this paper, the key risk decision problems of all stages of the whole life cycle of the project are combed, and the four typical traffic engineering examples in China: the PPP project of the Wenzhou Ou river north Kou comprehensive transportation, the PPP project of the high speed highway in Chengdu City, the PPP project of the Chengdu metro line 18 and the line 18 of the metro line 18. On the basis of literature research and case analysis,.1. has identified the initial risk list of the project on the basis of literature research and case analysis, and improved the initial list in the way of expert interview in China, and obtained the traffic PPP project. In the way of questionnaire survey, we obtain data from the way of questionnaire survey, use SPSS, Mplus and other software as tools, make exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis on the risk factors in the list with half data samples, divide 8 new dimensions, use the maximum variance method to rotate the component matrix, name the factor, and analyze the confirmatory factor analysis. The validity of the extraction factor is verified, the score coefficient of each factor is calculated and the comprehensive factor scoring formula is constructed according to the factor contribution rate. The score of each factor and the score of the comprehensive factor are obtained by combining the data of the second round city PPP project in Chengdu city. According to the result, the risk of the public factor is detailed and analyzed by.2. in the early stage of the risk of the traffic PPP project. To share the decision problem of the scheme, the risk list obtained by the previous study is used as the evaluation index system, and a risk sharing scheme decision method is designed by introducing the cloud model theory. A set of cyclic improved scoring method based on cloud thickness is proposed to solve the problem that the existing methods are easily ignored by the statistical results of the minority opinion. The Matlab software is used as a method. The tool, through programming, realizes the calculation of the model and outputs the 3D cloud map of the project risk sharing scheme. Combining with the example of the project example of the second round city high-speed PPP project in Chengdu, the validity of the method.3. is proved to be applied to the traffic P for the decision problem of the financing scheme in the early stage of the traffic PPP project. The financing scheme index evaluation system of the PP project and a financing scheme decision method based on rough set theory are used to discretize the data by using the genetic simulated annealing method. Based on the rough set theory, the influence factors are reasonably reduced, and the reduction based on rough set and conditional information entropy is used to calculate the reduction. The weight of the attribute in the index evaluation system is given to the grey relational analysis method to obtain the grey correlation degree. According to the size of the correlation degree, the project is evaluated. The PPP project of Chengdu metro line 18 is used to carry out an empirical study. It is proved that the effectiveness of the method.4. is divided into the decision problem of the risk coping strategy in the project construction stage. On the basis of the change of various factors in the project system during the construction phase of the traffic PPP project, the corresponding dynamic risk SD model is constructed. The model test is carried out with the VensimDSS software, combined with the PPP project of the second bypass Expressway in Chengdu, and the effect of risk element and risk ripple is simulated. The process of dynamic impact of the internal structure of the project on the overall objectives of the project. Through the single factor influence analysis, multi factor coupling effect analysis and policy design three analysis angles, the effect of different risk coping strategies on the overall goal of the project is discussed..5. is aimed at the emergency risk of the traffic PPP project. Decision problem, based on GPS satellite positioning technology, RS remote sensing technology, vehicle terminal PDA and other technologies, with the development software Visual Studio 2005 and the database software SQL Server2005 as the tool, a set of emergency risk decision support system for traffic PPP project operation stage is constructed, and the concrete application process of the system is given in combination with the actual data. This paper is studied in this paper. The results can provide reference for any transportation PPP project and the key risk decision-making problems at different stages of life cycle.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F283;F512

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