城际轨道交通对城市群产业竞争力的作用评价研究

发布时间：2018-08-02 20:47

【摘要】：随着经济全球化和城市化进程的加快,当今世界经济竞争的重点逐渐演变为城市群之间的竞争,而竞争的核心方面是产业竞争力。城际轨道交通以显著的技术经济优势,为城市群提供了新型高效的城际客运方式,对城市群经济—体化和产业竞争力发展意义深远。本文分析了城际轨道交通对城市群的产业竞争力的作用机制,并以京津城际轨道交通为对象进行了实证研究。理论分析部分在系统梳理国内外相关研究成果基础上,分析了城际轨道交通的技术特点和功能定位,从宏观和产业层面分析了城际轨道交通对城市群产业竞争力的作用机制。宏观层面的作用具体包括经济总体、社会需求、城市化、就业方面的促进作用；对产业层面的作用具体包括产业结构、产业效益、关联产业方面的提升作用。以作用机制的分析为基础,提出了城际轨道交通对城市群产业竞争力作用的评价思路,并建立了相应的评价指标体系。实证分析部分,对京津城际轨道交通对城市群产业竞争力的作用进行了量化评价,证实了其提升作用。首先,运用灰色预测法,预测了剔除京津城际轨道交通影响后的城际铁路客货运量。接着,运用多元线性回归法,计算了基于历史数据的城际铁路客货运量与产业竞争力各指标的预测模型和预测值。运用主成分分析法,对历史数据和预测值组成的产业竞争力指标数据列进行了综合评价,并计算城际轨道交通对产业竞争力的贡献率,结果证实了城际轨道交通对产业竞争力的提升作用。最后,提出了促进我国城际轨道交通建设健康发展的建议。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of economic globalization and urbanization, the focus of economic competition in the world has gradually evolved into the competition among urban agglomerations, and the core aspect of competition is industrial competitiveness. Intercity rail transit provides a new and efficient intercity passenger transport mode for urban agglomeration with remarkable technical and economic advantages, which is of far-reaching significance to the development of urban agglomeration economy and industrial competitiveness. This paper analyzes the function mechanism of intercity rail transit on the industrial competitiveness of urban agglomeration, and makes an empirical study on the intercity rail transit between Beijing and Tianjin. On the basis of systematically combing the related research results at home and abroad, the theoretical analysis part analyzes the technical characteristics and functional orientation of intercity rail transit, and analyzes the mechanism of intercity rail transit acting on the industrial competitiveness of urban agglomeration from the macro and industrial levels. The role of macro level includes the promotion of economy, social demand, urbanization, employment, and the promotion of industrial structure, industrial efficiency and related industries. Based on the analysis of the mechanism of action, this paper puts forward the idea of evaluating the effect of intercity rail transit on the industrial competitiveness of urban agglomeration, and establishes the corresponding evaluation index system. In the part of empirical analysis, the effect of Beijing-Tianjin intercity rail transit on the industrial competitiveness of urban agglomeration is quantitatively evaluated, and its promotion function is confirmed. Firstly, the passenger and freight volume of intercity railway after excluding the influence of Beijing-Tianjin intercity rail transit is forecasted by grey forecasting method. Then, using the multivariate linear regression method, the prediction model and prediction value of the indexes of passenger and freight transport volume and industrial competitiveness of inter-city railway based on historical data are calculated. By using principal component analysis method, the industrial competitiveness index data series composed of historical data and forecasted values are comprehensively evaluated, and the contribution rate of intercity rail transit to industrial competitiveness is calculated. The results confirm the role of intercity rail transit in promoting industrial competitiveness. Finally, some suggestions are put forward to promote the healthy development of intercity rail transit construction in China.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.2;F532.3

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