镇村公交票制模式及定价模型研究

发布时间：2018-08-21 12:44

【摘要】：随着农村交通基础设施不断完善、公共服务逐步延伸,农村客运发展迅速。作为农村客运重要组成部分,镇村公交发展潜力巨大,然而其在发展初期面临着票制票价不合理等现实问题。本文选取镇村公交票制票价为研究对象,通过构建数学模型对其进行定量研究,并结合实例提出适合镇村公交的票制模式及定价模型。首先,本文分析了镇村公交发展现状及实际表现的客流特征,对镇村公交运营特性进行深入研究。根据镇村公交实际特征和运营特点,对镇村公交票制票价的发展要求和存在问题进行总结探讨。其次,对常见的公共票制类型的优劣及适用条件进行具体分析。从企业、社会、乘客三方面分析镇村公交票制的影响因素,并结合镇村公交票制模式选择目的及影响因素构建指标体系,构建镇村公交票制模式选择模型,并以现阶段发展的镇村公交为例对模型进行验证。再次,结合影响因素,运用系统动力学的方法和原理,确定镇村公交定价模型中各结构、变量之间的因果关系,构造镇村公交基本运价的因果关系图和流图,确定模型中的方程,构建完整的镇村公交定价模型。最后,以江苏省溧阳市镇村公交为例,利用系统动力学仿真软件vensim进行模拟运算,初步确定未来年度票价水平和相关因素变化情况。为镇村公交定价提供更具针对性、更合理的理论建议和实践论证。
[Abstract]:With the continuous improvement of rural transport infrastructure and the extension of public services, rural passenger transport is developing rapidly. As an important part of rural passenger transportation, town and village public transportation has great potential, but it faces some practical problems in the early stage of its development, such as unreasonable ticket price and so on. This paper selects the ticket system of the town village bus as the research object, carries on the quantitative research by constructing the mathematical model, and proposes the ticket system model and the pricing model suitable for the town village public transportation. First of all, this paper analyzes the current situation of the development of town village public transport and the actual performance of passenger flow characteristics, and carries on in-depth research on the characteristics of town village public transport operation. According to the actual characteristics and operation characteristics of town and village public transportation, this paper summarizes the development requirements and existing problems of town village bus ticket system. Secondly, the advantages and disadvantages and applicable conditions of common public ticket system are analyzed in detail. From three aspects of enterprise, society and passengers, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of the bus ticket system in the town village, and constructs the model of the bus ticket system in the town village by combining the purpose of selecting the bus ticket system in the town village and the influencing factors to construct the index system. The model is verified by the current development of the town and village bus as an example. Thirdly, combining the influencing factors, using the method and principle of system dynamics, determining the causality between the structure and variables in the pricing model of the town village public transportation, constructing the causality diagram and the flow diagram of the basic transportation rate of the town village public transportation. Determine the equation in the model, build a complete town and village bus pricing model. Finally, taking Zhencun bus in Liyang City, Jiangsu Province as an example, the system dynamics simulation software vensim is used to carry out simulation calculation to determine the future annual fare level and the change of related factors. To provide more targeted, more reasonable theoretical advice and practical demonstration for town and village bus pricing.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F572.5

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