甘肃民族地区铁路建设项目社会经济效益评价模型研究及实证分析

发布时间：2018-08-29 12:32

【摘要】：伴随着西部大开发战略的实施，国家加大了西部少数民族地区铁路路网建设力度，西部少数民族地区铁路迎来了大发展时期，但在铁路建设项目大规模实施之前，对其进行经济评估就显得很重要，且以往西部少数民族地区铁路建设项目相对较少，对其项目的经济评价研究更是不多，基于此，本文通过对甘肃民族地区铁路建设项目社会经济效益的研究为后续民族地区铁路建设项目的实施提供一定的理论依据。本文首先分析了铁路建设项目经济评价指标体系的内容，而后指出了在项目财务状况相对较差的甘肃少数民族地区修建铁路建设项目应该偏重于其社会效益研究，并且从社会效益影响因素中选出起主导作用的社会经济效益作为研究对象。然后通过分析甘肃少数民族地区社会经济发展概况，，利用主成分分析法，确定出甘肃民族地区社会经济效益中主要因素的贡献率，依据贡献率确定出研究区域铁路建设项目社会经济效益的三大研究因子：GDP、客运量和货运量。本文接着通过分析系统动力学基本理论知识，依据甘肃民族地区铁路和经济之间的关系，构建起各种因素之间的因果循环结构，而后通过借助Vensim软件建立起有铁路建设项目时区域经济-铁路系统动力学模型，用计算机动态模拟民族地区铁路的建设和区域经济发展之间的关系，同时通过模型确定出有铁路建设项目时的区域社会经济效益研究因子的变化状况。然后通过研究GM（1，1）预测模型后，对时间响应方程进行了优化处理，依据优化后的GM（1，1）模型推算无铁路建设项目时区域社会经济效益研究因子的变化情况。通过有无铁路建设项目对比分析，得出两种情况下产生的差异就是其铁路建设项目对于区域社会经济效益的贡献值，若这种差异较大，则越能反映该地区修建铁路的必要性。本文最后以兰合铁路建设项目为实例，依据兰合铁路沿线少数民族地区基础经济数据，结合有铁路建设项目时的区域经济-铁路系统动力学模型和无铁路建设项目时的优化GM（1，1）模型，得到了在有无兰合铁路建设项目时其沿线少数民族地区社会经济效益研究因子之间的差异，且这种差异相对明显，同时从临夏甘南州矿产旅游资源开发、区域社会稳定、环境保护等方面定性的说明了兰合铁路修建的重要性，通过定量分析和定性分析相结合，指出兰合铁路修建的可行性和必要性。
[Abstract]:With the implementation of the western development strategy, the state has intensified the construction of the railway network in the western minority areas, and the railway in the western minority areas has ushered in a period of great development, but before the large-scale implementation of the railway construction projects, It is very important to carry on the economic evaluation to it, and in the past, the railway construction project in the western minority area is relatively few, the research on the economic evaluation of its project is even less, based on this, This paper provides a certain theoretical basis for the implementation of railway construction projects in ethnic minority areas through the study of the social and economic benefits of railway construction projects in ethnic minority areas of Gansu Province. This paper first analyzes the contents of the economic evaluation index system of railway construction projects, and then points out that the construction of railway construction projects in the minority areas of Gansu Province, where the financial situation of the projects is relatively poor, should pay more attention to the study of its social benefits. The social and economic benefits which play a leading role are selected as the research object from the social benefit influence factors. Then, by analyzing the general situation of social and economic development in ethnic minority areas in Gansu Province, and using principal component analysis, the contribution rate of the main factors in the social and economic benefits of ethnic minority areas in Gansu Province is determined. According to the contribution rate, three major research factors of social and economic benefit of regional railway construction project are determined: GDPP, passenger and freight transport. By analyzing the basic theoretical knowledge of system dynamics and the relationship between railway and economy in ethnic areas of Gansu Province, this paper constructs a causal cycle structure between various factors. Then the dynamic model of regional economy-railway system is established with the aid of Vensim software, and the relationship between railway construction and regional economic development in minority areas is simulated dynamically by computer. At the same time, the research factors of regional social and economic benefits with railway construction projects are determined by the model. Then the time response equation is optimized by studying the GM (1K1) prediction model, and the variation of regional social and economic benefit research factors in the absence of railway construction project is calculated according to the optimized GM (1K1) model. Through the comparative analysis of railway construction projects, it is concluded that the difference between the two cases is the contribution value of railway construction projects to regional social and economic benefits. If the difference is large, the more the necessity of railway construction in this area can be reflected. Finally, taking the Lanhe Railway Construction Project as an example, based on the basic economic data of the minority areas along the Lanhe Railway, Combining the regional economic-railway system dynamics model with the railway construction project and the optimized GM (1Q1) model with no railway construction project, The differences between the social and economic factors of the ethnic minority areas along the Lanhe railway construction project are obtained, and the differences are relatively obvious. At the same time, from the development of mineral tourism resources in Linxia Gannan Prefecture, the regional society is stable. The importance of the construction of Lanhe Railway is explained qualitatively in terms of environmental protection, and the feasibility and necessity of the construction of Lanhe Railway are pointed out through the combination of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F532.8

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