基于客货运需求预测的赤峰玉龙机场发展路径研究
发布时间：2018-09-02 09:50
【摘要】：改革开放以来，我国的民用航空业得到了快速发展，行业规模逐渐壮大，服务能力显著提高，为我国的经济发展和人民生活水平的不断提高做出了显著贡献。机场的快速发展给机场的货邮吞吐量预测带来了很大的难题，影响机场规划目标的制定，成为制约机场发展的重要因素。本文分析了机场货邮吞吐量的形成机理、影响因素，针对实例机场的具体情况，采用合适的预测模型，对机场的货邮吞吐量进行了预测分析。 本文分析了机场货邮吞吐量的形成机理和影响因素，探讨了机场货邮吞吐量预测的常用模型算法，并进行了对比分析。针对赤峰玉龙机场的货邮吞吐量增长迅速、机场运行负荷严重、急需扩建等问题，需要对机场的货邮吞吐量进行重新预测，以明确未来规划目标。首先，分析了赤峰玉龙机场的基本情况，采用主成分分析法对机场货邮吞吐量的影响因素进行了分析，结果显示机场货邮吞吐量主要受地区经济发展状况因子和机场运营相关状况因子的双重影响。其次，采用支持向量机回归模型对机场的货邮吞吐量进行了预测，并结合ARMA模型和计量经济模型进行了验证性分析，证明了预测方法的适应性和预测结果的准确性，结果显示赤峰玉龙机场未来货邮吞吐量增长迅速，超过了以前制定的规划目标。再次，对机场的未来发展进行了分析。运用指数平滑模型对机场旅客吞吐量和年起降架次进行了预测，，在此基础上确定了机场未来扩建目标；进行了机场发展支线航空的SWOT分析；提出了在稳步发展区域性航空枢纽客货业务基础上进一步发展通用航空、拓展非航空业务等改善机场运营状况的建议。最后，对全文进行了总结分析和展望。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's civil aviation industry has developed rapidly, the scale of the industry has gradually expanded, and the service capacity has improved significantly, which has made a significant contribution to China's economic development and the continuous improvement of people's living standards. In this paper, the forming mechanism and influencing factors of airport cargo and postal throughput are analyzed. According to the actual situation of an airport, the airport cargo and postal throughput is forecasted and analyzed by using appropriate forecasting model.
In this paper, the forming mechanism and influencing factors of airport cargo and postal throughput are analyzed, and the common model algorithms for airport cargo and postal throughput prediction are discussed and compared. Firstly, the basic situation of Chifeng Yulong Airport is analyzed, and the principal component analysis method is used to analyze the influencing factors of airport cargo and postal throughput. The results show that the airport cargo and postal throughput is mainly affected by the factors of regional economic development and airport operation. Support Vector Machine Regression (SVM) model is used to predict the cargo and postal throughput of the airport, and ARMA model and econometric model are used to verify the applicability of the prediction method and the accuracy of the prediction results. The results show that the cargo and postal throughput of Chifeng Yulong Airport will increase rapidly in the future, exceeding the previous planning objectives. Thirdly, the future development of the airport is analyzed. The airport passenger throughput and annual takeoff and landing sorties are forecasted by using the exponential smoothing model, and the future expansion target of the airport is determined on this basis. The SWOT analysis of the airport branch Airlines is carried out, and the development of passenger and cargo services in regional aviation hub is proposed. Suggestions for improving Airport operation, such as developing general aviation and expanding non-aviation business, are put forward. Finally, the full text is summarized and analyzed.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F562.6
本文编号：2218996
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's civil aviation industry has developed rapidly, the scale of the industry has gradually expanded, and the service capacity has improved significantly, which has made a significant contribution to China's economic development and the continuous improvement of people's living standards. In this paper, the forming mechanism and influencing factors of airport cargo and postal throughput are analyzed. According to the actual situation of an airport, the airport cargo and postal throughput is forecasted and analyzed by using appropriate forecasting model.
In this paper, the forming mechanism and influencing factors of airport cargo and postal throughput are analyzed, and the common model algorithms for airport cargo and postal throughput prediction are discussed and compared. Firstly, the basic situation of Chifeng Yulong Airport is analyzed, and the principal component analysis method is used to analyze the influencing factors of airport cargo and postal throughput. The results show that the airport cargo and postal throughput is mainly affected by the factors of regional economic development and airport operation. Support Vector Machine Regression (SVM) model is used to predict the cargo and postal throughput of the airport, and ARMA model and econometric model are used to verify the applicability of the prediction method and the accuracy of the prediction results. The results show that the cargo and postal throughput of Chifeng Yulong Airport will increase rapidly in the future, exceeding the previous planning objectives. Thirdly, the future development of the airport is analyzed. The airport passenger throughput and annual takeoff and landing sorties are forecasted by using the exponential smoothing model, and the future expansion target of the airport is determined on this basis. The SWOT analysis of the airport branch Airlines is carried out, and the development of passenger and cargo services in regional aviation hub is proposed. Suggestions for improving Airport operation, such as developing general aviation and expanding non-aviation business, are put forward. Finally, the full text is summarized and analyzed.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F562.6
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