港口服务供应链的风险评估与策略研究

发布时间：2018-09-06 15:00

【摘要】：随着经济的快速发展,港口在经济中的作用也越来越明显,为了充分发挥港口在国民经济中地位和作用,有必要对港口服务供应链进行风险分析,识别港口服务供应链的风险因素,评价港口供应的风险等级,提出控制港口服务供应链风险策略,降低港口服务供应链的风险。论文首先总结已有的研究成果,并在此基础上定义了港口服务供应链的概念,同时分析了港口服务供应链的构成以及港口服务供应链的特征；然后将风险管理理念引入港口服务供应链,确定了港口服务供应链风险概念和相应特征；随后结合港口服务供应链的特征和不同风险识别方法的特征,论文选择文献分析和风险调查问卷相结合的方法识别港口服务供应链的风险因素,对将风险调查问卷结果导入SPSS软件进行因子分析,最终得到港口服务供应链的风险因子有4大类31个；在辨识港口服务供应链风险因子的基础上,论文将模糊数学和贝叶斯网理论结合起来构建了港口服务供应链的风险评价模型；接着论文根据已经构建的风险识别体系和基于模糊贝叶斯的港口服务供应链评估模型,运用GeNIe软件评估广西某港口的某服务供应链的风险情况,并且运用贝叶斯网逆向推理的找出影响力最大的风险因子,在此基础上提出针对性的风险控制建议,从而达到控制港口服务供应链风险的目的。论文辨识了港口服务供应链风险因素和构建基于模糊贝叶斯网的港口服务供应链风险评估模型,并通过实例验证了本文模型的可行性,对于港口服务供应链的风险识别和风险控制有很好的理论以及实践运用价值。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy, the role of the port in the economy is becoming more and more obvious. In order to give full play to the status and role of the port in the national economy, it is necessary to carry out risk analysis on the port service supply chain. The risk factors of port service supply chain are identified, the risk grade of port supply chain is evaluated, and the risk strategy of port service supply chain is put forward to reduce the risk of port service supply chain. Firstly, this paper summarizes the existing research results, and then defines the concept of port service supply chain, and analyzes the structure of port service supply chain and the characteristics of port service supply chain. Then the risk management concept is introduced into the port service supply chain, and the risk concept and corresponding characteristics of the port service supply chain are determined, and then the characteristics of the port service supply chain and different risk identification methods are combined. The paper selects the method of combining literature analysis and risk survey questionnaire to identify the risk factors of port service supply chain, and carries on factor analysis to import the risk questionnaire results into SPSS software. Finally, the risk factors of the port service supply chain can be classified into 4 categories and 31 categories, and the risk factors of the port service supply chain can be identified on the basis of identifying the risk factors of the port service supply chain. This paper combines fuzzy mathematics and Bayesian network theory to construct the risk evaluation model of port service supply chain, and then according to the risk identification system and the evaluation model of port service supply chain based on fuzzy Bayes. Using GeNIe software to evaluate the risk of a certain service supply chain in a port in Guangxi, and using Bayesian network reverse reasoning to find out the most influential risk factors, and then put forward targeted risk control suggestions. In order to control the risk of port service supply chain. The paper identifies the risk factors of the port service supply chain and constructs the risk assessment model of the port service supply chain based on fuzzy Bayesian network. The feasibility of the model is verified by an example. It has good theoretical and practical value for risk identification and risk control in port service supply chain.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F552.3

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