海上大件运输特点与市场分析

发布时间：2018-10-05 06:50

【摘要】：近年来,随着世界范围内的基础设施建设及海洋石油开采力度的加大,海上大件运输由于具有专业化程度高、不可替代的优势而在航运市场中的地位越来越重要,但对该市场的理论研究相对滞后,市场发展也欠成熟。本文不仅弥补了理论研究的不足,也为我国从事海上大件运输的航运企业提供了一定的指导意义。本文在对海上大件运输相关概念和理论介绍的基础上,从货种、船型、航线和港口等市场要素方面分析海上大件运输的特点,并以典型货种为例介绍大件运输操作流程及特点。通过对市场基础数据的实证分析,从供需角度论述海上大件运输市场的现状和供需特征。同时借助波特五力分析模型定性地分析船东议价能力、货主议价能力、潜在进入者威胁、替代品威胁和船东间竞争这五力对市场竞争的影响,得出海上大件运输市场整体上竞争稳定,但会逐渐趋于激烈的结论。然后对市场的影响因素和供需变化规律做出宏观概括,并以钻井平台为例详细分析市场未来供需变化。最后利用时间序列、趋势外推等方法组合预测未来三年市场供需情况的发展趋势,预测结果表明市场需求和供给都将稳定增加,短期内运力将保持供给小于需求的状况,但供给的增加速度大于需求增加速度,市场竞争会逐渐激烈。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the development of infrastructure construction and offshore oil exploitation in the world, the position of large-scale marine transportation is becoming more and more important because of its high specialization and irreplaceable advantage. However, the theoretical research on the market is lagging behind, and the development of the market is not mature. This paper not only makes up for the deficiency of theoretical research, but also provides some guiding significance for the shipping enterprises engaged in large-scale marine transportation in our country. Based on the introduction of related concepts and theories of large goods transportation at sea, this paper analyzes the characteristics of large goods transportation by sea from the aspects of cargo type, ship type, route and port, and introduces the operation flow and characteristics of large goods transportation by taking typical goods as an example. Based on the empirical analysis of the basic data of the market, this paper discusses the present situation and the characteristics of supply and demand of the large goods transportation market at sea from the point of view of supply and demand. At the same time, with the help of Porter's five-force analysis model, the paper qualitatively analyzes the influence of the five forces on the market competition, such as shipowner's bargaining power, cargo owner's bargaining power, potential entrant threat, substitute threat and the competition among shipowners. It comes to the conclusion that the market of large-scale goods at sea is stable in overall competition, but will gradually become more and more fierce. Then the influencing factors of market and the changing law of supply and demand are summarized macroscopically, and taking the drilling platform as an example, the change of market supply and demand in the future is analyzed in detail. Finally, using time series, trend extrapolation and other methods to forecast the development trend of market supply and demand in the next three years, the forecast results show that the market demand and supply will increase steadily, and the short-term transport capacity will keep the situation that supply is smaller than demand. But the increasing speed of supply is larger than the increasing speed of demand, and the market competition will be fierce gradually.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U695.26

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