航空公司收益管理中的超售策略研究

发布时间：2018-10-22 10:25

【摘要】：近年来，国内航空运输业取得了迅猛发展，但是随着经济的全球化及“高铁”的快速兴起，国内航空公司面临的竞争日益加剧。为了更好的生存和发展，越来越多的航空公司开始引入收益管理系统，以提高公司的核心竞争力，获得持续稳定的收益。机票超售是收益管理的重要组成部分，也是航空公司增加收益的有效手段。本文以航空公司收益管理中的机票超售问题为研究对象，对风险中性及考虑决策者风险偏好的超售决策问题展开了深入的研究。论文首先对现有的收益管理理论及超售研究现状进行了较为系统的归纳阐述和文献评价。其次，考虑在风险中性的条件下，决策者以收益最大化为目标，通过建立数学模型并对其进行优化和求解，给出了完全信息和部分信息两种情形下的超售策略，数值仿真表明部分信息下的超售策略具有较强的鲁棒性，能够有效解决信息缺失下的超售决策问题。接着，考虑到决策者的风险偏好因素，利用CVaR风险度量方法，同时权衡损失和风险，研究了在不同的风险容忍水平下该如何进行超售决策，并得出了最优的超售策略。最后，对全文的研究内容和结论进行了总结，，并提出了未来可研究的方向。机票超售在航空公司的实践操作中可能会面临很多问题，如在决策时应重点考虑哪些因素、信息缺失的情况下该如何决策、风险和收益该如何平衡等。本文的研究将为这些问题的解决提供科学的决策依据和管理启示。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the domestic air transportation industry has made rapid development, but with the globalization of economy and the rapid rise of "high-speed rail", domestic airlines are facing increasingly fierce competition. In order to survive and develop better, more and more airlines begin to introduce revenue management system in order to improve the core competitiveness of the company and obtain a sustained and stable income. Ticket overbooking is an important part of revenue management and an effective means for airlines to increase revenue. In this paper, the problem of air ticket overselling in airline revenue management is taken as the research object, and the problem of risk neutral and decision makers' risk preference is deeply studied in this paper. Firstly, the thesis systematically summarizes and evaluates the existing revenue management theory and the research status of overselling. Secondly, considering the risk neutral condition, the decision makers aim at maximizing the income. By establishing the mathematical model and optimizing and solving it, the overselling strategy under the condition of complete information and partial information is given. Numerical simulation shows that the overselling strategy under partial information is robust and can effectively solve the problem of overselling decision in the absence of information. Then, considering the risk preference factors of decision makers, using CVaR risk measurement method and balancing loss and risk, we study how to oversell decision under different risk tolerance levels, and get the optimal oversell strategy. Finally, the research contents and conclusions are summarized, and the future research directions are put forward. There may be many problems in the practice of airline ticket overbooking, such as which factors should be considered in decision making, how to make decision in the absence of information, how to balance risk and profit, etc. The research in this paper will provide scientific decision-making basis and management enlightenment for solving these problems.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F562.6;F224

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