考虑出行者风险态度的最优路内停车策略研究及仿真分析

发布时间：2018-11-17 15:52

【摘要】：出行者停车决策行为是停车问题的一个重要研究方向。早期的出行者停车决策问题主要从政府、停车场运营商的视角开展研究,较少从出行者风险态度的视角开展研究。近年研究表明,出行者的风险态度会影响出行者的出行选择行为。因此,本文考虑出行者的风险态度,研究了不同风险态度类型出行者的最优路内停车策略选择。首先,本文对停车问题的研究进行了梳理,并总结了文献中有关出行者停车决策行为的研究进展。然后通过阅读文献,系统地梳理了影响出行者停车决策的因素,并将其进行归纳总结。本文将影响因素分为个体因素、经济因素和时间因素三类,因为出行者的年龄、性别等个体因素最终会作用于出行者的风险态度,所以本文采用风险态度刻画出行者的个体因素,并以此作为出行者类型的分类标准,将出行者划分为风险规避型出行者、风险中性型出行者、风险偏好型出行者。此外,经济因素包括停车费用和燃油费用,时间因素包括普通驾驶时间、巡游时间和步行时间。最终得到了出行者停车决策影响因素的概念模型。其次,本文分析了出行者的停车过程,基于出行者停车决策的影响因素,对出行者在停车过程中所产生的成本进行了定义,即时间成本、经济成本和早到/迟到惩罚成本,并结合均值—方差理论,引入出行者的风险态度系数,构建了考虑出行者风险态度的路内停车决策模型。同时,本文结合前人研究,分析了出行者在停车过程中的三种停车策略,包括"早停早到"策略、"早停晚到"策略和"不早到"策略,为研究出行者风险态度对最优路内停车策略的选择的影响打下基础。再次,本文利用Netlogo仿真平台,对出行者的路内停车过程进行仿真模拟。在仿真实验中构建了多主体的路内停车决策仿真情境,模拟了三种不同风险态度出行者的停车决策行为,分别计算在每种策略下的出行者的风险感知值,然后以风险感知值最小为最优目标,分析了不同条件下该类风险态度出行者的最优停车策略选择情况。并进一步分析了在具体情境下,出行者的最优预留出行时间。
[Abstract]:Parking decision-making behavior is an important research direction of parking problem. The problem of parking decision in the early period was mainly studied from the perspective of government and parking operators, and less from the perspective of travelers' risk attitude. Recent studies have shown that the traveler's risk attitude will affect the traveler's travel choice behavior. Therefore, considering the risk attitude of travelers, this paper studies the optimal parking strategy selection for different risk attitude types. Firstly, this paper reviews the research on parking problem and summarizes the research progress of parking decision-making behavior in the literature. Then, by reading the literature, the paper systematically combs the factors that affect the parking decision, and summarizes them. This paper divides the influencing factors into three categories: individual factors, economic factors and time factors, because individual factors such as age, sex and other factors will ultimately affect the risk attitude of travelers. So this paper uses risk attitude to describe the individual factors of the traveler and takes it as the classification standard of the type of traveler. The traveler is divided into risk aversion type traveler risk neutral type traveler and risk preference type traveler. In addition, economic factors include parking and fuel costs, time factors include normal driving time, cruise time and walking time. Finally, the conceptual model of influencing factors of parking decision is obtained. Secondly, this paper analyzes the parking process of the passengers, and based on the factors influencing the parking decision, defines the costs incurred by the passengers in the parking process, namely, the time cost, the economic cost and the penalty cost of early arrival / late arrival. Based on the mean-variance theory and the risk attitude coefficient of travelers, a parking decision model considering the risk attitude of travelers is constructed. At the same time, combined with previous studies, this paper analyzes three kinds of parking strategies in the process of parking for travelers, including "early stop early", "early stop, late arrival" and "no early arrival". It provides a basis for studying the influence of traveler's risk attitude on the choice of optimal parking strategy. Thirdly, this paper uses Netlogo simulation platform to simulate the parking process. In the simulation experiment, a multi-agent simulation situation of in-road parking decision is constructed, and the parking decision-making behavior of three different risk attitude travelers is simulated, and the risk perception values of the travelers under each strategy are calculated respectively. Then, taking the minimum risk perception as the optimal goal, the optimal parking strategy selection of this kind of risk attitude travelers is analyzed under different conditions. Furthermore, the optimal reserved travel time for travelers in specific situations is analyzed.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F713.55;F572
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本文编号：2338362