中国交通基础设施投资适度性理论及实证检验

发布时间：2018-11-19 14:00

【摘要】：针对中国大力发展交通基础设施投资,注重扩大建设规模实现区域覆盖的建设模式,以及地方政府之间激烈竞争造成的交通基础设施投资规模不断增长的现状,不少学者提出交通基础设施投资过度的警示。文章着重研究交通基础设施投资"度"的问题,提出交通基础设施投资存在适度性的观点。首先,在古诺模型经典理论的基础上对交通基础设施对经济的影响效应以及相互关系进行了理论模型构建。其次,在理论模型的基础上,以公路为例,采用中国各省份1978-2011年的面板数据进行实证检验,得出结论:经济发展与交通基础设施投资建设之间呈倒"U"型关系。即在交通基础投资建设初期,交通基础设施规模的增加解决经济发展的瓶颈,促进经济的发展。随着交通基础设施投资规模的继续扩大化,将超过经济和社会发展的需求,造成资源的闲置和浪费,对经济产造成不利影响。交通基础设施投资达到一个适度的程度能够实现经济产出的最大化。再次,在适度性理论的基础上,建立最优路网密度模型,说明交通基础设施投资与经济发展之间是一种动态均衡的关系。通过运用部分OECD国家的国际数据估计出交通基础设施投资建设的适度规模,以此评价中国各省市路网密度的适度性。评价结果表明,中国大多数省份处于交通基础设施投资不足的状况,其中西藏、新疆等中西部省份交通基础设施严重匮乏。而北京、重庆等直辖市以及旅游型城市海南则出现了交通基础设施投资过度的情况。最后,提出建议:中国交通基础设施建设投资应当遵循适度性原则,避免盲目的进行规模扩大化建设,应更加注重质的提高,提高交通基础设施利用率;充分结合各地区的实际需求实现交通基础设施投资的差异化,注重地方政府间区域间的协调与合作,实现区域间交通基础设施的有效沟通和衔接,提高中国交通基础施设整体水平。
[Abstract]:In view of the development of transportation infrastructure investment in China, the construction mode of expanding construction scale to realize regional coverage, and the increasing scale of transportation infrastructure investment caused by fierce competition among local governments, Many scholars put forward the warning of excessive investment in transport infrastructure. This paper focuses on the problem of "degree" of transportation infrastructure investment, and puts forward the point of view that traffic infrastructure investment is moderate. Firstly, based on the classical theory of Cournot model, the influence of traffic infrastructure on economy and the relationship between traffic infrastructure and economy are built. Secondly, on the basis of theoretical model, taking highway as an example, using the panel data of Chinese provinces from 1978 to 2011 to carry on the empirical test, it is concluded that the relationship between economic development and transportation infrastructure investment is inverted "U" type. That is, in the initial stage of transportation infrastructure construction, the increase of traffic infrastructure scale solves the bottleneck of economic development and promotes economic development. With the continuous expansion of the scale of transportation infrastructure investment, it will exceed the demand of economic and social development, resulting in the idle and waste of resources, and will have a negative impact on economic production. A moderate degree of investment in transport infrastructure can maximize economic output. Thirdly, based on the theory of appropriateness, the optimal road network density model is established, which shows that the relationship between transportation infrastructure investment and economic development is a dynamic equilibrium. The moderate scale of transportation infrastructure investment is estimated by using international data of some OECD countries to evaluate the appropriateness of road network density of provinces and cities in China. The results show that most of China's provinces are underinvested in transport infrastructure, including Tibet, Xinjiang and other central and western provinces with serious lack of transport infrastructure. Beijing, Chongqing and other municipalities, as well as Hainan, a tourist city, have overinvested in transport infrastructure. Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions: China's transportation infrastructure investment should follow the principle of moderation, avoid the blind expansion of the scale of construction, should pay more attention to the improvement of quality, improve the utilization rate of transportation infrastructure; Fully integrating the actual needs of various regions to realize the differentiation of transport infrastructure investment, paying attention to the coordination and cooperation among local governments, and realizing effective communication and convergence of interregional transport infrastructure, Improve the overall level of transportation infrastructure in China.
【作者单位】：重庆大学经济与工商管理学院;重庆大学公共管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“金融依赖型产业的脆弱性研究”(2010306020130067)
【分类号】：F512.3

【参考文献】