中国高铁对外投资风险评估与规避

发布时间：2018-12-05 21:50

【摘要】：21世纪,随着经济全球化的深入发展,基础设施迎来了前所未有的发展机遇,在全球高铁需求市场旺盛背景下,中国高铁以低成本、高质量的独特优势迅速走出国门,积极参与海外以“低碳、节约、绿色环保”为核心的高铁市场建设,成为未来对外投资中一个极具成长性项目。虽然我国高铁市场的出现以及建立都晚于日本、欧美等高铁国家,但是我国高铁市场成长速度快,在中国政府主导下,中国高铁通过“引进、吸收、创新”的发展模式,其配套设备、相关技术不断创新发展,据有关数据统计,中国国内高速铁路运营里程和高速铁路建设规模已经超越世界各国,成为世界上高铁大国。但是,中国高铁对外投资是一个全新的领域,会遭遇各种风险,并且是未来中国高铁对外投资中无法回避的一个新问题。中国高铁对外投资具有项目系统复杂、投资金额大、投资周期长、技术要求高,收益回报周期长等特点,故在项目的投资过程中必定会存在各种不确定因素影响中国高铁对外投资的效益,通过对影响或者形成中国对外投资风险的影响因素进行梳理总结,本文侧重从系统性风险和非系统性风险两方面进行全面系统分析,系统性风险主要包括中国高铁投资目标国国别风险、经济风险、法律法规风险等不受投资主体控制的外部市场风险；非系统性风险指投资主体自身原因所造成的投资活动的不确定,包括中国高铁对外投资主要是在中国在政府主导下,而不是基于全球高铁市场供求规律,这在一定程度上能够减少高铁对外投资的障碍,转移国内产能过剩,提高海外市场利用率,但是一方面却为高铁对外投资埋下了隐患。本文在梳理有关对外直接投资理论研究的基础上,结合中国高铁在世界市场上的投资现状,瞄准影响中国高铁对外投资风险的不确定因素,分析高铁对外投资的相关资料,划分影响高铁对外投资的系统性风险和非系统性风险,结合专家调查法,收集整合专家们的意见,并结合实地考察,口头咨询,查阅相关文献的方式,识别和分析评价中国高铁投资过程中的不确定因素对中国高铁对外投资风险水平的影响比重,并对它们深入剖析,层次分类,然后建立有效的风险因素指标体系,并使用MATLAB软件计算各个风险因素的风险权重,建立有效的中国高体对外投资风险水平指标体系,并借助AHP模糊综合评估模型,全面度量风险水平,且对评价结果使用三种原则综合评估,得出高铁对外投资风险水平属于低下等。最后,文章针对高铁对外投资提出对策建议来规避对外投资中的风险,以期为高铁对外投资风险水平评估与规避提供思路,为新兴工业国家对外投资经济转型作出一定借鉴。
[Abstract]:In the 21st century, with the deepening development of economic globalization, infrastructure has ushered in unprecedented opportunities for development. Against the background of the booming global high-speed rail demand market, China's high-speed rail has rapidly gone abroad with its unique advantages of low cost and high quality. Taking an active part in the construction of high speed rail market with "low carbon, saving and green environment" as the core of overseas, it has become a very growth project in the future foreign investment. Although the emergence and establishment of China's high-speed rail market is later than that of high-speed rail countries such as Japan, Europe and the United States, the high-speed rail market in China has grown rapidly. Under the leadership of the Chinese government, high-speed rail in China has been developed through the "import, absorption, and innovation" development model. According to statistics, China's domestic high-speed railway operation mileage and high-speed railway construction scale has surpassed the world countries, become the world's high-speed rail power. However, China's high-speed rail outbound investment is a new area, will encounter a variety of risks, and will be the future of high-speed rail foreign investment in China can not avoid a new problem. Foreign investment in high-speed rail in China is characterized by complex project systems, large investment amount, long investment cycle, high technical requirements, and long return period. Therefore, in the investment process of the project, there must be a variety of uncertain factors that affect the benefit of China's high-speed railway foreign investment, and the influence factors that affect or form the risk of China's foreign investment are summarized through combing and summing up the factors that affect or form the risk of China's foreign investment. This paper focuses on systemic risk and non-systemic risk. The systemic risk includes country risk and economic risk in the target country of high-speed rail investment in China. The external market risks, such as the risks of laws and regulations, which are not controlled by the investors; Non-systemic risk refers to the uncertainty of investment activities caused by the investors' own causes, including the fact that China's foreign investment in high-speed rail is mainly under the leadership of the Chinese government, rather than based on the laws of supply and demand in the global high-speed rail market. To some extent, this can reduce the barriers to foreign investment in high-speed rail, transfer domestic overcapacity and improve the utilization rate of overseas markets, but it has created a hidden problem for foreign investment in high-speed rail. On the basis of combing the theoretical research on foreign direct investment (FDI), combined with the current investment situation of China's high-speed rail in the world market, this paper aims at the uncertain factors that affect the risk of China's high-speed rail investment abroad, and analyzes the relevant data of high-speed rail's foreign investment. Dividing the systematic and non-systematic risks that affect foreign investment in high-speed rail, combining the expert investigation method, collecting and integrating the opinions of the experts, and combining the field visits, oral consultation, and the way of consulting the relevant literature. To identify and evaluate the impact of the uncertain factors in the investment process of China's high-speed rail on the risk level of China's high-speed rail foreign investment, and to analyze and classify them in depth, and then to establish an effective index system of risk factors. The risk weight of each risk factor is calculated by using MATLAB software, and an effective index system of Chinese high body foreign investment risk level is established. With the help of AHP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, the risk level is comprehensively measured. Using three principles to evaluate the evaluation results, it is concluded that the risk level of foreign investment in high-speed rail is low. Finally, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to avoid the risks in the foreign investment of high-speed rail, in order to provide some ideas for the evaluation and avoidance of the risk level of foreign investment of high-speed rail, and to make certain reference for the economic transformation of foreign investment in the emerging industrial countries.
【学位授予单位】：陕西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F532;F125

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