高速铁路全要素生产率研究
发布时间：2018-12-11 19:43
【摘要】：近年来,国家大力发展高速铁路,时速为200公里以上的高速铁路运营里程在2020年将会是当前的三倍。高铁建设初期需要大量资金注入,建成后的收入很难在短时期内偿清债务,高铁的生产率水平直接影响着企业的偿债能力和营运状况。高速铁路是普通铁路运输技术进步的体现,建成后的生产率趋势和影响因素分析有利于高铁运输企业降低高速铁路的运输成本,能够有针对性地控制影响高速铁路生产率变化的因素,提高其生产率。全要素生产率(Total Factor Productivity)是宏观经济学的重要概念,该指标能够观察到剔除由劳动和资金投入的其他因素给生产率带来的变化,通过分析能够得出高速铁路技术对产出的影响。 文章介绍了高速铁路全要素生产率的相关基本理论,由技术进步理论引出全要素生产率的概念及其产生与发展。在确定了高速铁路投入和产出要素特点及构成的基础上,分析了全要素生产率计算方法在测度高速铁路全要素生产率时的适用性,最终选择了生产函数法、索洛余值法、狄氏指数法及精确指数法测度了广深城际高速列车全要素生产率水平的具体方法,并分析了计算结果。 研究结果表明,在高速铁路建设和运营初期,样本和数据量较少,应选用适合于时间序列数据的全要素生产率计算方法,如生产函数法、狄氏指数法和精确指数法。狄氏指数法和精确指数法不能够具体测算出高速铁路的TFP值,但其计算模型不用对参数进行分析,能够直接比较各年高铁TFP值的变化情况,也能分析各投入要素对TFP值的影响。在高铁运营形成规模后,数据样本量巨大,可以选择数据包络分析法或曼奎斯特指数法对高铁的全要素生产率作进一步的分析,如考虑到随机因素对TFP的影响,随机前沿生产函数法是最佳选择。高速铁路TFP值受到资本产出弹性、劳动产出弹性,投入要素价格以及产出量和产出价格的影响,引起TFP值变化的因素还包括如金融危机、自然灾害、社会活动、国家政策等外在因素。高速铁路的全要素生产率变化特征可描述为三个时期：迅速增长期,下降期,平稳增长期。迅速增长期为高速铁路投入运营的初期,下降期为运营后的过渡阶段,TFP值较初期有小幅下降,在此之后的平稳增长期TFP值比较稳定并且有小幅增长。 提高高速铁路全要素生产率,应加强新技术的创新和应用,注重资源投入的质量和有效性,降低国际不良经济形势对企业运营的影响。从产出的角度来说,客运周转量的增加幅度也决定了高速铁路运输企业TFP值的变化幅度,提高客运周转量也是提高TFP值的因素。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the country has made great efforts to develop high-speed railways. The operating mileage of high-speed railways with speeds of more than 200 kilometers per hour will triple that of the present in 2020. At the beginning of high-speed railway construction, a large amount of capital is needed, and the income after completion is difficult to pay off debts in a short period of time. The productivity level of high-speed rail has a direct impact on the solvency and operation of enterprises. High-speed railway is the embodiment of the technical progress of ordinary railway transportation. The trend of productivity after completion and the analysis of influencing factors are beneficial to the high-speed railway enterprises to reduce the transportation cost of high-speed railway. It can control the factors that affect the productivity of high speed railway and improve its productivity. Total factor productivity (Total Factor Productivity) is an important concept in macroeconomics. This index can observe the change of productivity caused by excluding other factors of labor and capital input, and the influence of high-speed railway technology on output can be obtained by analysis. This paper introduces the basic theory of total factor productivity of high-speed railway, and introduces the concept of total factor productivity and its production and development from the theory of technological progress. On the basis of determining the characteristics and composition of input and output factors of high-speed railway, the applicability of total factor productivity calculation method in measuring total factor productivity of high-speed railway is analyzed. Finally, the production function method and Solow residual value method are selected. The Dee exponent method and the exact index method are used to measure the total factor productivity level of Guangzhou-Shenzhen Intercity High Speed Train and the calculation results are analyzed. The results show that, in the early stage of high-speed railway construction and operation, the sample and data quantity are relatively small, so the calculation methods of total factor productivity suitable for time series data, such as production function method, Dixon index method and accurate index method, should be selected. The TFP value of high-speed railway can not be calculated concretely by Dixon index method and precise exponent method, but its calculation model does not need to analyze the parameters, and can directly compare the change of TFP value of high-speed railway in each year, and can also analyze the influence of each input element on TFP value. After the scale of high-speed rail operation, the sample size is huge, so we can choose data envelopment analysis method or Manquist index method to further analyze the total factor productivity of high-speed rail, such as considering the impact of random factors on TFP. The stochastic frontier production function method is the best choice. The TFP value of high-speed railway is influenced by the elasticity of capital output, labor output, input factor price, output and output price. The factors that cause the change of TFP value include financial crisis, natural disasters, social activities, etc. State policy and other external factors. The characteristics of total factor productivity change of high speed railway can be described as three periods: rapid growth period, decline period and steady growth period. The rapid growth period is the initial period of the high-speed railway operation, the decline period is the transition stage after operation, the TFP value is slightly lower than the initial period, and the TFP value of the stable growth period after this period is relatively stable and has a small increase. To improve the total factor productivity of high speed railway, we should strengthen the innovation and application of new technology, pay attention to the quality and effectiveness of resource input, and reduce the influence of the bad international economic situation on the operation of enterprises. From the point of view of output, the increase of passenger transport turnover also determines the change of TFP value of high-speed railway transportation enterprises, and the increase of passenger transport turnover is also the factor of increasing TFP value.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U238;F532
本文编号：2373116
[Abstract]:In recent years, the country has made great efforts to develop high-speed railways. The operating mileage of high-speed railways with speeds of more than 200 kilometers per hour will triple that of the present in 2020. At the beginning of high-speed railway construction, a large amount of capital is needed, and the income after completion is difficult to pay off debts in a short period of time. The productivity level of high-speed rail has a direct impact on the solvency and operation of enterprises. High-speed railway is the embodiment of the technical progress of ordinary railway transportation. The trend of productivity after completion and the analysis of influencing factors are beneficial to the high-speed railway enterprises to reduce the transportation cost of high-speed railway. It can control the factors that affect the productivity of high speed railway and improve its productivity. Total factor productivity (Total Factor Productivity) is an important concept in macroeconomics. This index can observe the change of productivity caused by excluding other factors of labor and capital input, and the influence of high-speed railway technology on output can be obtained by analysis. This paper introduces the basic theory of total factor productivity of high-speed railway, and introduces the concept of total factor productivity and its production and development from the theory of technological progress. On the basis of determining the characteristics and composition of input and output factors of high-speed railway, the applicability of total factor productivity calculation method in measuring total factor productivity of high-speed railway is analyzed. Finally, the production function method and Solow residual value method are selected. The Dee exponent method and the exact index method are used to measure the total factor productivity level of Guangzhou-Shenzhen Intercity High Speed Train and the calculation results are analyzed. The results show that, in the early stage of high-speed railway construction and operation, the sample and data quantity are relatively small, so the calculation methods of total factor productivity suitable for time series data, such as production function method, Dixon index method and accurate index method, should be selected. The TFP value of high-speed railway can not be calculated concretely by Dixon index method and precise exponent method, but its calculation model does not need to analyze the parameters, and can directly compare the change of TFP value of high-speed railway in each year, and can also analyze the influence of each input element on TFP value. After the scale of high-speed rail operation, the sample size is huge, so we can choose data envelopment analysis method or Manquist index method to further analyze the total factor productivity of high-speed rail, such as considering the impact of random factors on TFP. The stochastic frontier production function method is the best choice. The TFP value of high-speed railway is influenced by the elasticity of capital output, labor output, input factor price, output and output price. The factors that cause the change of TFP value include financial crisis, natural disasters, social activities, etc. State policy and other external factors. The characteristics of total factor productivity change of high speed railway can be described as three periods: rapid growth period, decline period and steady growth period. The rapid growth period is the initial period of the high-speed railway operation, the decline period is the transition stage after operation, the TFP value is slightly lower than the initial period, and the TFP value of the stable growth period after this period is relatively stable and has a small increase. To improve the total factor productivity of high speed railway, we should strengthen the innovation and application of new technology, pay attention to the quality and effectiveness of resource input, and reduce the influence of the bad international economic situation on the operation of enterprises. From the point of view of output, the increase of passenger transport turnover also determines the change of TFP value of high-speed railway transportation enterprises, and the increase of passenger transport turnover is also the factor of increasing TFP value.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U238;F532
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