长春城市客运出租车发展研究

发布时间：2018-12-14 07:37

【摘要】：我国的出租车行业相对发达国家而言起步较晚,但随着国民经济的飞速发展和人民生活水平的极大提高,出租车快速、便利、舒适、安全和服务面广的特点,使其迅速占领了城市客运交通的一方市场,其需求量也不断激增。但是如果对出租车发展规模不加以控制,则会导致经营者利润低下、行业不稳定、道路交通资源浪费、城市交通拥挤、能源消耗、污染加重、日后运力过剩等诸多问题。因此,合适的城市出租车拥有量是保证出租汽车行业资源优化配置,健康、有序的发展以及城市公共交通体系协调发展的前提。而出租车拥有量到底为多少合适,这就需要在研究清楚城市客运交通发展到底处于什么阶段、影响出租车拥有量的因素到底有哪些、城市出租车行业现状到底是什么之后,寻求一套合适的方法来确定城市出租车拥有量。本文根据长春市出租车行业发展现状,分析长春市出租车行业存在的问题,利用数学模型协调出租汽车与城市客运体系中其他客运方式的比例,引导长春市出租车行业健康发展。首先,论文对出租汽车的交通特性与发展趋势进行分析,明确了出租车在城市客运交通系统中的地位和作用,分析了出租车与其他交通方式的相互关系,并探讨了出租车交通的发展趋势；其次,本文根据长春市出租车行业发展现状,通过定性的分析,得出长春市出租车行业发展的问题所在；最后本文通过对出租车与其它交通方式的分析,建立多目标约束模型,得出长春市公交、出租车与私家车的合理比例,在此基础上结合供需平衡理论得出长春市出租车的合理保有量,并引入传统预测方法进行结果对比,对不同预测方法适应性作出分析,最后根据定性与定量分析提出长春市出租车发展策略,对长春市出租车行业发展有一定借鉴作用。
[Abstract]:China's taxi industry started relatively late compared with the developed countries, but with the rapid development of the national economy and the great improvement of people's living standards, the taxi industry is characterized by fast, convenient, comfortable, safe and wide service. It quickly occupied one side of the market of urban passenger traffic, and its demand increased rapidly. However, if the scale of taxi development is not controlled, it will lead to low profit of operators, unstable industry, waste of road traffic resources, urban traffic congestion, energy consumption, aggravated pollution, future overcapacity and many other problems. Therefore, appropriate urban taxi ownership is the premise to ensure the optimal allocation of taxi industry resources, healthy and orderly development and coordinated development of urban public transport system. However, the number of taxi owners is suitable, so we need to find out what stage the development of urban passenger transport is in, what factors affect taxi ownership, and what is the status quo of the urban taxi industry. Look for a suitable way to determine the number of taxi owners in the city. According to the current situation of the taxi industry in Changchun, this paper analyzes the problems existing in the taxi industry in Changchun, and makes use of the mathematical model to coordinate the proportion of taxi and other passenger transportation modes in the urban passenger transport system. Guide Changchun taxi industry to develop healthily. First of all, the paper analyzes the traffic characteristics and development trend of taxi, clarifies the position and function of taxi in the urban passenger transportation system, and analyzes the relationship between taxi and other traffic modes. The development trend of taxi traffic is also discussed. Secondly, according to the current situation of Changchun taxi industry development, through qualitative analysis, draw the Changchun taxi industry development problems; Finally, through the analysis of taxi and other traffic modes, a multi-objective constraint model is established, and the reasonable proportion of public transportation, taxi and private car in Changchun is obtained. On this basis, combining with the theory of supply and demand balance, the reasonable quantity of taxi in Changchun city is obtained, and the traditional forecasting method is introduced to compare the results, and the adaptability of different forecasting methods is analyzed. Finally, according to the qualitative and quantitative analysis, the development strategy of Changchun taxi is put forward, which can be used for reference to the development of Changchun taxi industry.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F572.88;F224

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