基于ISM方法和物元模型的海外跨境高铁项目风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-12-16 16:29

【摘要】：随着我国“一带一路”战略计划的提出和逐步实施,越来越多的沿线国家加强与中国的经济贸易以及人文交流合作。该战略的提出为中国高铁的发展提供了历史性的机遇。但由于高铁项目本身的特点和东道国诸多因素的影响,中国高铁走向世界具有较大的复杂性和不确定性。如何科学有效地识别风险因素、明晰风险因素结构及作用机理并且对风险进行准确评估已成为高铁“走出去”的重要难题,同时也是本文的研究重点。本文首先通过选取多个国外高铁项目为对象,对中国高铁海外受挫原因相关数据进行收集、整理,识别了中国海外高铁项目遭遇的主要风险类型。进而通过相关文献的整理以及实例分析,构建了海外跨境高铁项目风险因素体系。考虑到风险因素之间的相互影响,本文接着提出一种改进粒计算的权重确定方法,该方法根据样本间的相似关系得到具有分层结构的商空间族,通过对各属性在商空间族中的重要度进行计算,得到各个评价指标对应的权重。随后本文引入物元模型,根据海外跨境高铁项目持续时间长、涉及多个东道国的特点,构建了动态复合物元模型。最后,本文以“新马高铁”项目为研究对象,运用解释结构模型对“新马高铁”项目风险因素体系进行层级划分,绘制了风险因素结构关系图,找出了该项目存在的直接、源头以及过程风险。运用改进粒计算法得到各个评价指标的风险权重,通过对比通过粒计算得到的权重发现,在考虑风险因素相互影响的情况下得到的权重更合理,并运用动态复合物元模型对“新马高铁”项目的风险情况进行评估.最后根据评价结果,提出了风险应对策略和建议。
[Abstract]:With the development and implementation of Belt and Road's strategic plan, more and more countries along the route have strengthened their economic, trade and cultural exchanges and cooperation with China. This strategy provides a historic opportunity for the development of high-speed rail in China. However, due to the characteristics of the high-speed rail project itself and the influence of many factors in the host country, China's high-speed rail project to the world has greater complexity and uncertainty. How to identify risk factors scientifically and effectively, clarify the structure and mechanism of risk factors and evaluate the risks accurately has become an important problem of high-speed rail "going out", and is also the focus of this paper. This paper firstly collects and collates the data related to the causes of overseas setbacks of China's high-speed rail projects, and identifies the main types of risks encountered by overseas high-speed rail projects in China. Then the risk factors system of overseas cross-border high-speed rail project is constructed through the collation of relevant documents and the analysis of examples. Considering the interaction between risk factors, this paper proposes an improved method to determine the weight of granular computing. According to the similarity relationship between samples, the quotient space family with hierarchical structure is obtained. By calculating the importance of each attribute in the quotient space family, the corresponding weights of each evaluation index are obtained. Then the matter element model is introduced and the dynamic complex element model is constructed according to the characteristics of the overseas cross-border high-speed rail project which has a long duration and involves many host countries. Finally, taking the "Xinma-Malaysia high-speed railway" project as the research object, this paper uses the explanatory structure model to divide the risk factor system of the "Xinma-Malaysia high-speed railway" project into different levels, draws the structural diagram of the risk factor, and finds out the direct existence of the project. Source and process risk. The risk weight of each evaluation index is obtained by using improved particle calculation method. By comparing the weight obtained by grain calculation, it is found that the weight obtained under the condition of considering the mutual influence of risk factors is more reasonable. The dynamic complex element model is used to evaluate the risk of Xinma-high-speed railway project. Finally, according to the evaluation results, put forward the risk response strategies and recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F531.3;F125

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