离散时间问题中政府调控对铁路货运的经济影响分析

发布时间：2018-12-18 20:34

【摘要】：在充分了解管制失灵的背景下,鉴于对大部制改革后铁路运输市场化的预期,基于Meijdam和Verhoeven的福利分析方法,构建一个离散时间问题下符合铁路运输市场特性的高维微分动力系统,将系统线性化.在模型的求解中,采用递归原理及Z-变换解决Meijdam和Verhoeven方法不能适用于系统特征根为重根,系数矩阵不能对角化的变量求解问题.针对改革后预期政府政策改变对运价、运量等变量因素引发的经济影响进行比较静态分析.通过算例分析,发现投资补贴与运量的初始变化呈现正相关,与票价水平的初始变化则呈现负相关,且对后者的变化具有更高的敏感性.同时,随着政策改变时长的增加,对两者的影响力将同时减弱并分别收敛于0.005 8和-0.004 1.
[Abstract]:In view of the expectation of the marketization of railway transportation after the reform of the Ministry system, the welfare analysis method based on Meijdam and Verhoeven is based on the full understanding of the regulation failure. In this paper, a high dimensional differential dynamic system is constructed for discrete time problem, which accords with the characteristics of railway transportation market. The system is linearized. In the solution of the model, the recursive principle and the Z- transformation are used to solve the problem that the Meijdam and Verhoeven methods are not suitable for solving the variable problem in which the eigenroot of the system is double root and the coefficient matrix cannot be diagonalized. This paper makes a comparative static analysis on the economic impact caused by variable factors such as freight rate and volume after the expected change of government policy after the reform. Through the example analysis, it is found that the investment subsidy is positively correlated with the initial change of freight volume, and negatively correlated with the initial change of the fare level, and is more sensitive to the change of the latter. At the same time, as the length of policy changes increases, the impact on both will weaken at the same time and converge to 0.005 8 and-0.004 1, respectively.
【作者单位】：西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院;
【基金】：铁道部科技研究开发计划(2012X007-B)
【分类号】：F123;F532;F224

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