基于效用理论航空公司全货机与客机腹舱适用性研究

发布时间：2018-12-21 16:05

【摘要】：全球经济复苏缓慢,航空货运需求持续萎靡。客机腹舱运力不断增长,运力过剩,运载率持续降低。货机的载货率和日利用率以及航空货运运价持续走低,致使整个航空货运行业盈利能力低下。面对以上市场形势,引发了全货机和客机腹舱的激烈争论,全货机作为生产工具甚至出现信任危机,致使不同的货运航空公司对其采取了不同的应对措施。本文认为争论的根本原因在于没有充分认识全货机和客机腹舱作为航空货运的主要生产工具的本质及其适用性。为了充分认识和理解全货机和客机腹舱作为航空货物运输的两种运力,首先从需求角度,基于市场细分理论对航空货运市场进行细分,并总结其对应的市场需求主体的特征,同时从供给角度,对航空公司运营的全货机和客机腹舱的特征,通过构建比较概念模型进行系统的比较分析;然后基于细分航空货运市场需求特征进行二项Logit效用函数模型构建,更加量化的分析全货机和客机腹舱的适用性,并以航空快件市场为例,构建效用函数模型的确定项,通过极大似然法对模型参数进行标定,运用Matlab软件进行参数求解,基于以上分析结合全货机与客机腹舱的系统比较对全货机和腹舱的适用性进行评价;最后根据分析结论对我国货运航空公司提出相关策略或建议。
[Abstract]:The global economic recovery has been slow and air cargo demand has continued to languish. Passenger aircraft belly cabin capacity continues to grow, excess capacity, the rate of delivery continues to decline. The cargo loading rate, daily utilization ratio and air freight rate of the aircraft continue to decline, which results in the low profitability of the whole air cargo industry. In the face of the above market situation, the whole cargo aircraft and passenger aircraft belly cabin heated debate, the whole cargo aircraft as a means of production even appeared a trust crisis, resulting in different cargo airlines to take different measures to deal with it. This paper holds that the basic reason of the controversy lies in the failure to fully understand the essence and applicability of the belly cabin of the whole cargo plane and the passenger aircraft as the main means of air cargo production. In order to fully understand and understand the full cargo aircraft and passenger aircraft belly cabin as two kinds of air cargo transport capacity, first of all, from the demand point of view, based on the market segmentation theory to subdivide the air cargo market, and summarize its corresponding characteristics of the market demand main body. At the same time, from the point of view of supply, the characteristics of the ventral cabin of the whole cargo aircraft and passenger aircraft operated by airlines are analyzed systematically by constructing a comparative conceptual model. Then, based on the demand characteristics of subdivided air cargo market, two Logit utility function models are constructed, and the applicability of full cargo aircraft and passenger aircraft belly cabin is more quantitatively analyzed, and taking the aviation express market as an example, the determinants of utility function model are constructed. The model parameters are calibrated by maximum likelihood method, and the parameters are solved by Matlab software. Based on the above analysis, the applicability of the whole cargo plane and the belly cabin is evaluated based on the comparison of the whole cargo plane and the belly cabin of the passenger plane. At last, according to the conclusion of the analysis, the author puts forward the relevant strategies or suggestions to the cargo airlines of our country.
【学位授予单位】：中国民航大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F562.6

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