中国沿海港口吞吐量增长变化与港口岸线集约利用研究
发布时间：2018-12-26 10:29
【摘要】：沿海港口码头建设投资成本高，只有当具有规模的稳定的吞吐量来支撑才能保证沿海港口经济的平稳发展，才能促进国民经济的健康可持续发展。港口发展中码头建设及岸线资源均具有不可流动性，港口岸线的合理开发和整合利用以及陆域和经济腹地的良好支撑必然成为港口发展的重要影响因素。 本文希望通过研究我国沿海港口发展和港口岸线集约利用，提出我国沿海港口发展中存在的问题及相应的应对措施，，以此期待为我国港口岸线合理开发利用提供有价值的参考。本文的研究是从影响沿海港口发展的影响因素为出发点，探讨沿海港口规模发展变化的原因，继而运用VAR模型、时间序列、回归模型、弹性系数对吞吐规模进行预测，并结合定性分析对结果进行修正，最后给定预测区间。通过研究沿海港口通过能力与吞吐规模之间的关系进一步研究港口建设与吞吐量增长的机制，并对港口通过能力进行预测，结合沿海港口吞吐量的预测结果得出2015年和2020年我国沿海港口生产性码头泊位通过能力的提高值。最后建立沿海港口岸线利用效率指标，从时间和空间两方面来评价我国港口岸线利用效率现状，根据已计算出的通过能力提高值和岸线利用效率指标值以及搜集到的规划港口岸线数据计算岸线的开发潜力，为未来港口岸线集约有效利用提供参考。 研究结果发现我国沿海港口发展2005年已经开始出现不适应，通过能力缺口逐年扩大，港口间发展不平衡，这势必影响港口经济发展。研究发现我国港口岸线利用效率低，岸线浪费严重。通过计算岸线开发潜力发现未来港口建设将面临岸线供应不足的局面，这就使得加快提高岸线利用效率成为当务之急。
[Abstract]:The investment cost of coastal port and wharf construction is high. Only when the coastal port is supported by stable throughput on a large scale can the steady development of coastal port economy be guaranteed and the healthy and sustainable development of national economy can be promoted. In the port development, the construction of wharf and the resources of shoreline are all illiquid. The rational development and integrated utilization of port shoreline and the good support of land area and economic hinterland are the important influencing factors of port development. This paper hopes that by studying the development of our coastal ports and the intensive utilization of port shoreline, the problems existing in the development of our country's coastal ports and the corresponding countermeasures will be put forward, so as to provide valuable reference for the rational development and utilization of the port shorelines in China. The research of this paper is based on the factors affecting the development of coastal ports, discusses the reasons for the development of coastal ports, and then uses VAR model, time series, regression model, elastic coefficient to predict the throughput scale. The result is modified by qualitative analysis, and the prediction interval is given at last. The mechanism of port construction and throughput growth is further studied by studying the relationship between port throughput and throughput capacity, and the capacity of port transit is forecasted. Combined with the forecast results of the throughput of coastal ports, it is concluded that in 2015 and 2020, the capacity of berths passing through the productive berths of China's coastal ports will be improved. Finally, the efficiency index of coastal port shoreline utilization is established, and the present situation of seaport shoreline utilization efficiency is evaluated in terms of time and space. According to the calculated value of capacity improvement, the index value of shoreline utilization efficiency and the collected data of planning port shoreline, the development potential of shoreline is calculated, which provides a reference for the intensive utilization of port shoreline in the future. The results show that the development of coastal ports in China has already begun to appear unsuitable in 2005, and the gap of capacity has been enlarged year by year, and the development of ports is unbalanced, which is bound to affect the development of port economy. It is found that the utilization efficiency of port coastline in China is low, and the wastage of coastline is serious. By calculating the potential of shoreline development, it is found that the future port construction will face the shortage of shoreline supply, which makes it urgent to improve the efficiency of shoreline utilization.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F552.3
本文编号：2391963
[Abstract]:The investment cost of coastal port and wharf construction is high. Only when the coastal port is supported by stable throughput on a large scale can the steady development of coastal port economy be guaranteed and the healthy and sustainable development of national economy can be promoted. In the port development, the construction of wharf and the resources of shoreline are all illiquid. The rational development and integrated utilization of port shoreline and the good support of land area and economic hinterland are the important influencing factors of port development. This paper hopes that by studying the development of our coastal ports and the intensive utilization of port shoreline, the problems existing in the development of our country's coastal ports and the corresponding countermeasures will be put forward, so as to provide valuable reference for the rational development and utilization of the port shorelines in China. The research of this paper is based on the factors affecting the development of coastal ports, discusses the reasons for the development of coastal ports, and then uses VAR model, time series, regression model, elastic coefficient to predict the throughput scale. The result is modified by qualitative analysis, and the prediction interval is given at last. The mechanism of port construction and throughput growth is further studied by studying the relationship between port throughput and throughput capacity, and the capacity of port transit is forecasted. Combined with the forecast results of the throughput of coastal ports, it is concluded that in 2015 and 2020, the capacity of berths passing through the productive berths of China's coastal ports will be improved. Finally, the efficiency index of coastal port shoreline utilization is established, and the present situation of seaport shoreline utilization efficiency is evaluated in terms of time and space. According to the calculated value of capacity improvement, the index value of shoreline utilization efficiency and the collected data of planning port shoreline, the development potential of shoreline is calculated, which provides a reference for the intensive utilization of port shoreline in the future. The results show that the development of coastal ports in China has already begun to appear unsuitable in 2005, and the gap of capacity has been enlarged year by year, and the development of ports is unbalanced, which is bound to affect the development of port economy. It is found that the utilization efficiency of port coastline in China is low, and the wastage of coastline is serious. By calculating the potential of shoreline development, it is found that the future port construction will face the shortage of shoreline supply, which makes it urgent to improve the efficiency of shoreline utilization.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F552.3
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本文编号：2391963
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