基于系统动力学的城市交通方式结构演变研究

发布时间：2019-01-06 13:19

【摘要】：全国大中城市交通都面临十分突出的矛盾,出现严重的城市交通拥堵现象,环境污染和能源问题,影响着城市的生产生活以及经济建设的发展。在大城市交通问题的背景下,城市交通方式结构优化成为许多大城市解决交通问题的首要选择。通过实施一系列城市交通运输政策,积极推进发展公共交通的策略,使城市交通方式结构合理演变。首先对城市交通方式结构进行系统分析,详细论述城市交通方式结构的构成及分析城市交通方式结构的相关影响因素。以系统动力学基础理论为基础,确定模型的目的及边界,模型的目的在于研究城市交通方式结构的演变趋势及不同交通政策下对道路交通负荷、交通能耗、交通污染的影响。根据模型边界确定系统的主要要素及因果关系图,描绘城市交通方式结构系统动力学模型的总因果关系图,进一步确定变量类型和变量的相互关系,绘制出模型流图。以城市交通为研究对象,探讨城市交通系统的社会经济、居民出行特征、交通供给与需求、交通能源消耗、交通对环境的污染、交通运输政策等因素,构建城市交通方式结构的系统动力学模型,利用上海市的实例研究来模拟上海市城市交通方式结构的演变趋势。通过改变相关政策变量,模拟不同交通政策情景的实施效果,观察城市交通方式结构及城市交通状态的变化情况,提出初步的政策建议。任何单一的交通政策都有其局限性,必须实施综合政策,从公共交通优先政策、交通投资政策、交通需求管理政策三方面着手,实现较为理想的交通方式结构,并且大大改善城市交通运行状态。通过政策模拟得到的结果,证明综合政策的实施能明显减少交通拥堵,改善上海市交通运行状况,降低能源消耗和环境污染,优化交通方式结构。
[Abstract]:The traffic of large and medium cities in the whole country is faced with very prominent contradiction. Serious urban traffic congestion, environmental pollution and energy problems affect the production and life of cities and the development of economic construction. Under the background of traffic problems in large cities, the optimization of urban traffic mode structure has become the first choice to solve traffic problems in many big cities. Through the implementation of a series of urban transportation policies, the strategy of developing public transportation is actively promoted, so that the structure of urban transportation mode can evolve reasonably. Firstly, the structure of urban traffic mode structure is analyzed systematically, and the structure of urban traffic mode structure and the related influencing factors of urban traffic mode structure are discussed in detail. Based on the basic theory of system dynamics, the purpose and boundary of the model are determined. The purpose of the model is to study the evolvement trend of urban traffic mode structure and the influence of different traffic policies on road traffic load, traffic energy consumption and traffic pollution. According to the model boundary, the main elements of the system and the causality diagram are determined, the total causality diagram of the dynamic model of the urban traffic mode structure system is described, the relationship between the variable types and the variables is further determined, and the model flow diagram is drawn. Taking urban traffic as the research object, this paper discusses the social and economic characteristics of urban transportation system, the characteristics of residents' travel, traffic supply and demand, traffic energy consumption, traffic pollution to the environment, transportation policies, and so on. The system dynamics model of urban traffic mode structure is constructed, and the evolvement trend of Shanghai urban traffic mode structure is simulated by using the case study in Shanghai. By changing the relevant policy variables and simulating the implementation effect of different traffic policy scenarios, the changes of urban traffic mode structure and urban traffic state are observed, and preliminary policy recommendations are put forward. Any single transportation policy has its limitations. It is necessary to implement a comprehensive policy, starting from three aspects: public transport priority policy, traffic investment policy, and traffic demand management policy, so as to achieve a more ideal traffic mode structure. And greatly improve the state of urban traffic operation. The results of policy simulation show that the implementation of the comprehensive policy can obviously reduce traffic congestion, improve traffic operation in Shanghai, reduce energy consumption and environmental pollution, and optimize the traffic mode structure.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F572;U12

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