运输结构对交通运输能源消费的影响分析

发布时间：2019-01-26 17:37

【摘要】：交通运输业是现代经济的重要组成部分,是保障国家持续发展的重要基础性产业,同时交通运输业又是终端能源消耗型行业,已经成为我国能源消耗最快的行业之一,是实现节能减排目标的重要领域。运输结构的调整是实现运输节能目标的有效途径,运输结构对交通运输能源消费的影响研究具有重要的意义。论文从交通运输能源消费的影响因素入手,深入的研究了运输结构对交通运输能源消费的影响,包括以下四个主要内容。(1)在综述运输结构及能源消费研究现状的基础上,提出了论文的研究内容和框架;梳理了运输结构和能源消费的理论和研究方法,为运输结构对能源消费影响的研究提供理论基础。(2)剖析运输结构对能源消费的影响,将交通运输能源消费影响因素分为数量性影响、结构性影响和能耗强度影响,交通运输发展分为同构期同水平期、同构期异水平期、异构期同水平期和异构期异水平期。(3)分别建立在同构期同水平和同构期异水平不同水平下的数量性影响增长率与能源消费量增长率的关系模型,分析运输周转量对能源消费的影响;分别建立异构期同水平期和异构期异水平期不同情况下的运输结构影响增长率与能源消费量增长率的关系模型,利用模型图像来分析运输结构对能源消费的影响。(4)应用1985-2014年运输结构及能源消费的实际数据进行实证研究。研究结果表明,结构性影响增长率与能源消费量增长率存在明显的函数关系。在异构期同水平期,结构性影响增长率与能源消费量增长率为二次函数关系;在异构期异水平期,二者为三次函数关系。根据拟合的图像分析,当结构性影响增长率大于零时,能源消费量的增长速度均随结构性影响增长率的增大而逐渐加快,结构性影响增长量的正负以及增长速度对能源消费量的增速有显著的影响。
[Abstract]:Transportation is an important part of the modern economy and an important basic industry to ensure the sustainable development of the country. At the same time, it is also the terminal energy consumption industry, which has become one of the fastest energy consuming industries in China. It is an important area to achieve the goal of energy saving and emission reduction. The adjustment of transport structure is an effective way to realize the goal of transportation energy saving. It is of great significance to study the influence of transport structure on transportation energy consumption. This paper starts with the influence factors of transportation energy consumption, deeply studies the influence of transportation structure on transportation energy consumption, including the following four main contents. (1) on the basis of summarizing the research status of transport structure and energy consumption, The research content and frame of the thesis are put forward. Combing the theory and research methods of transport structure and energy consumption, this paper provides a theoretical basis for the study of the influence of transport structure on energy consumption. (2) analyze the influence of transport structure on energy consumption. The factors affecting energy consumption in transportation are divided into quantitative impact, structural impact and energy intensity impact, and transportation development is divided into isomorphic period, isomorphic period and different level period. (3) the relationship model between the growth rate of quantity and the growth rate of energy consumption is established under the same level of isomorphism period and different level of isomorphism period, and the relationship between the growth rate of energy consumption and the growth rate of energy consumption in different levels of isomorphism period and isomorphism period. Analyze the influence of transportation turnover on energy consumption; The relationship model between the growth rate of energy consumption and the growth rate of transportation structure is established under the condition of the same level period and different level period of heterogeneous period, respectively. The influence of transport structure on energy consumption is analyzed by using the model image. (4) the empirical study is carried out by using the actual data of transport structure and energy consumption from 1985 to 2014. The results show that there is an obvious functional relationship between the growth rate of structural influence and the growth rate of energy consumption. In the same level period of heterogeneous period, the relationship between the growth rate of structural influence and the growth rate of energy consumption is a quadratic function, while in the different level period of heterogeneous period, the relationship between them is a cubic function. According to the fitting image analysis, when the growth rate of structural influence is greater than 00:00, the growth rate of energy consumption increases gradually with the increase of structural influence growth rate. The positive and negative effects of structural growth and the growth rate have a significant impact on the growth of energy consumption.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F512

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