基于PPP模式城际铁路融资风险分担研究

发布时间：2019-03-12 16:39

【摘要】：随着“十三五”现代综合交通运输体系发展规划的出台,我国基础设施建设,特别是城际铁路的建设步伐加快。政府部门采用PPP融资模式引进社会资本,既减轻政府财政压力、降低政府风险、满足城际铁路建设融资需要,同时又可满足社会经济发展需要。私营部门通常掌握非常先进的项目管理经验和技术,引入社会资本将有助于大幅提高基础设施建设项目的质量和效率,同时降低基础设施项目建设的成本。然而,PPP模式下城际铁路项目存在投入资金量大、参与方角色关系复杂、项目建设周期较长等特点,在项目生命周期内存在诸多风险,因此PPP模式下城际铁路项目风险分担是否合理和措施是否得当,采取的方法能否有效促使各参与方积极高效的控制风险,很大程度上决定了项目风险发生的概率、项目的损失,甚至项目的成败。本论文从城际铁路项目特许协议阶段构建项目风险分担模型进行深入研究。通过相关文献和案例,运用统计法得出60个主要风险因素,并分析了风险起源及后果。风险识别的过程中采用统计法选取文献中被提到过5次以上的50个主要风险因素。采用专家调查法和L.Y.Shen的观点得出风险因素影响程度,经过计算分别得到20个发生概率最大和危害程度最大风险因素。然后运用帕累托法则得到风险因素的累计贡献率,得到PPP城际铁路项目37个关键风险因素、7个重要风险因素和6个次级风险因素。最后将风险因素分为单一承担主体风险和政府及私营部门两方承担的风险:分析单一承担主体风险分担时,构建惩罚函数、风险控制成本补偿函数和风险控制奖励函数模型激励参与方提高管理和控制风险的积极性,达到规避风险目的;分析政府及私营部门风险分担时,采用博弈论分析法得到双方分担比例,而且得出分担比例只和贴现率有关。
[Abstract]:With the introduction of the 13th five-year Plan for the development of the modern integrated transportation system, the construction of infrastructure, especially the inter-city railway, has been accelerated in our country. Government departments adopt PPP financing mode to introduce social capital, which not only lightens government financial pressure, reduces government risk, meets the financing needs of inter-city railway construction, but also meets the needs of social and economic development. The private sector usually has very advanced project management experience and technology, and the introduction of social capital will help significantly improve the quality and efficiency of infrastructure projects, while reducing the cost of infrastructure projects. However, there are many risks in the life cycle of the inter-city railway projects under the PPP model, such as the large amount of input funds, the complex role of the participants, the long construction cycle of the project, and so on, and there are many risks in the life cycle of the project. Therefore, whether the risk sharing of the inter-city railway project under the PPP mode is reasonable and the measures are appropriate, and whether the methods adopted can effectively promote the participants to actively and efficiently control the risk, to a great extent determines the probability of the project risk and the loss of the project. Even the success or failure of the project. In this paper, the project risk sharing model is constructed from the stage of inter-city railway concession agreement. Through relevant literature and cases, 60 main risk factors are obtained by using statistical method, and the origin and consequences of risk are analyzed. In the process of risk identification, 50 main risk factors mentioned more than 5 times in the literature were selected by statistical method. The influence degree of risk factors was obtained by using expert investigation method and L.Y.Shen 's point of view, and 20 risk factors with the maximum probability of occurrence and the maximum degree of harm were obtained by calculation. Then the cumulative contribution rate of risk factors is obtained by using Pareto rule, and 37 key risk factors, 7 important risk factors and 6 secondary risk factors of PPP intercity railway project are obtained. Finally, the risk factors are divided into single bearing subject risk and government and private sector risk: when analyzing the single bearing subject risk sharing, the penalty function is constructed. The risk control cost compensation function and the risk control reward function model encourage the participants to improve the enthusiasm of management and control risk to achieve the purpose of avoiding risk. When analyzing the risk sharing between the government and the private sector, the game theory analysis is used to obtain the ratio of the two parties, and it is concluded that the ratio of the share is only related to the discount rate.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F283;F572

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