城市低碳交通的政策选择方法研究

发布时间：2019-05-27 18:22

【摘要】：全球气候变化对于人类生态环境造成了严重的破坏，如何应对气候变化已经成为当今世界的重要议题。在影响气候变化的诸多因素中，二氧化碳作为气候变化的主要推手，受到世界的广泛关注。我国作为最大的发展中国家，目前正处于快速发展阶段，城市经济发展与生态环境保护之间的矛盾日趋增加，而这一矛盾突出表现在城市交通与环境的问题上。随着城市机动化的跨越式发展，城市交通的二氧化碳排放量呈直线上升的趋势。城市交通的低碳化发展作为一项长期战略，成为城市可持续发展的必然要求。其中，采取合理的政策措施是城市低碳交通发展的关键。论文以构建科学、有效的城市低碳交通政策选择方法体系为目标，以期为城市低碳交通的发展决策提供科学指导。城市低碳交通发展受社会经济、城市规模、居民生活水平、运输结构、运输效率多种因素的影响，，碳排放量的大小涉及到交通运输的各个部门，城市低碳交通政策的研究就是准确、全面地分析这些影响因素，通过选取合适的政策，使得这些政策作用于各个部门，从而实现城市交通的低碳化发展。论文对影响城市低碳交通发展的各种因素进行了分析，基于LEAP模型理论，运用情景分析、综合集成赋权及聚类分析等方法，构建了科学、有效的低碳政策选择方法体系。首先，城市低碳交通的情景政策集合选择是政策评价的前提和基础。论文从以下两方面进行政策选择：一方面，根据重要因素对政策选择的影响，运用主成分分析和灰色关联分析集成赋权法，对城市低碳交通的影响因素进行重要性评价，根据影响因子的重要程度进行政策选择；另一方面，根据相似城市的政策相似性，运用聚类分析方法以及灰色系统理论，选择相似先进城市的政策经验为参照样本进行政策选择；然后，通过将重要性、相似性和先进性所得的政策各选集进行汇总得到情景政策集合。其次，对所选政策效果测度进行计算，运用LEAP模型的原理构建碳排放测算模型，根据政策集合设定不同情景，分析比较各情景二氧化碳排放情况，确定最优情景模式。最后，以西安为例进行了实证分析，验证了政策选择方法的科学性和有效性。论文研究成果能为城市低碳交通政策的中长期决策提供科学、客观的理论依据。
[Abstract]:Global climate change has caused serious damage to human ecological environment, how to deal with climate change has become an important issue in today's world. Among the many factors affecting climate change, carbon dioxide, as the main driver of climate change, has been widely concerned by the world. As the largest developing country, China is in the stage of rapid development, and the contradiction between urban economic development and ecological environment protection is increasing day by day, and this contradiction is manifested in the problem of urban traffic and environment. With the leap-forward development of urban motorization, the carbon dioxide emissions of urban traffic show a straight upward trend. As a long-term strategy, the low-carbon development of urban traffic has become the inevitable requirement of urban sustainable development. Among them, taking reasonable policy measures is the key to the development of urban low-carbon transportation. The goal of this paper is to construct a scientific and effective system of urban low-carbon traffic policy selection, in order to provide scientific guidance for the development decision-making of urban low-carbon traffic. The development of urban low-carbon transportation is affected by many factors, such as social economy, urban scale, living standard of residents, transportation structure and transportation efficiency. The size of carbon emissions involves all sectors of transportation. The research of urban low-carbon traffic policy is to analyze these influencing factors accurately and comprehensively, and to make these policies act on various departments by selecting appropriate policies, so as to realize the low-carbon development of urban traffic. In this paper, various factors affecting the development of urban low-carbon traffic are analyzed. Based on LEAP model theory, a scientific and effective low-carbon policy selection method system is constructed by using situational analysis, integrated weighting and cluster analysis. First of all, the choice of scenario policy set of urban low-carbon traffic is the premise and basis of policy evaluation. This paper makes policy choices from the following two aspects: on the one hand, according to the influence of important factors on policy choice, principal component analysis and grey relational analysis integrated weighting method are used to evaluate the importance of the influencing factors of urban low-carbon traffic. The policy choice is carried out according to the importance of the influencing factors; On the other hand, according to the policy similarity of similar cities, the policy experience of similar advanced cities is selected as the reference sample by using cluster analysis method and grey system theory. Then, the situational policy set is obtained by summarizing the selected sets of policies derived from importance, similarity and advanced nature. Secondly, the selected policy effect measure is calculated, and the carbon emission measurement model is constructed by using the principle of LEAP model. According to the policy set, different scenarios are set up, the carbon dioxide emissions of each scenario are analyzed and compared, and the optimal scenario model is determined. Finally, taking Xi'an as an example, an empirical analysis is carried out to verify the scientific and effective policy choice method. The research results of this paper can provide scientific and objective theoretical basis for the medium and long term decision of urban low carbon traffic policy.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X322;F572

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