基于现金流量的汽车行业上市公司财务危机预警研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 03:05

本文关键词：基于现金流量的汽车行业上市公司财务危机预警研究　出处：《黑龙江大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：汽车行业在国民经济中发挥着举足轻重的作用，其财务状况更是备受关注。通过对此行业的财务危机预警进行研究，能及早发现财务危机的信号，从而尽可能的采取措施来应对危机。本文以一个全新的视角--现金流量来研究财务危机预警，以提高预警的有效性和准确性。论文首先梳理和总结了相关国内外文献，对现金流量和财务危机预警相关理论进行阐述。其次，深入分析了汽车行业上市公司财务危机预警的现状。再次，从现金流量结构角度和现金流量比率角度（包括获现能力、偿债能力、盈利质量、财务弹性）共筛选出18个指标。运用主成分分析与Logistic回归分析相结合的方法构建基于现金流量的汽车行业上市公司财务危机预警模型，并对模型预警效果进行了检验。最后，，运用所构建的财务危机预警模型对山东滨州渤海活塞股份有限公司的财务危机进行了预警分析。
[Abstract]:Automobile industry plays an important role in the national economy, and its financial situation is more concerned. Through the study of financial crisis early warning in this industry, we can find the signal of financial crisis as early as possible. In order to improve the effectiveness and accuracy of financial crisis, this paper uses a new perspective, cash flow, to study the early warning of financial crisis. The paper firstly combs and summarizes the relevant domestic and foreign literature, and expounds the related theories of cash flow and financial crisis warning. Secondly, it deeply analyzes the current situation of financial crisis early warning of listed companies in automobile industry. From the perspective of cash flow structure and cash flow ratio (including liquidity, solvency, profitability, quality). A total of 18 indexes were screened out and the financial crisis warning model of listed companies in automobile industry based on cash flow was constructed by combining principal component analysis and Logistic regression analysis. Finally, this paper analyzes the financial crisis of Shandong Binzhou Bohai Piston Co., Ltd by using the financial crisis early-warning model.
【学位授予单位】：黑龙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.471;F832.51;F275

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