基于生存分析的生物制药企业财务预警研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 07:41

本文关键词：基于生存分析的生物制药企业财务预警研究　出处：《辽宁科技大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：财务危机预警一直以来都是金融领域一个重要的研究课题，且财务危机预警机制的建立是避免企业陷入财务危机的最重要环节。根据国内外相关研究的分析，会发现以往的企业财务危机预警研究是以普遍适用性为主，然而行业间的差异随着经济的不断发展越来越明显，因此针对各个行业构建财务危机预警机制已成为财务危机预警研究的一个热点。 2013年，国务院最新下发了《生物产业发展规划》，该规划指出到2020年我国要把生物产业发展成为国民经济支柱产业，这意味着生物制药行业迎来了其发展的黄金时代。生物制药行业作为新型的朝阳产业，具有技术含量高、多学科综合等特点但其产品在研发、生产、销售的过程中，面临着各种复杂的风险，如果不及时加以防范，很可能引发财务危机，甚至破产。因此，选择合理的财务危机分析方法，有效地防范和控制财务危机，是生物制药行业关注的主要问题。首先，本文对目前国内外财务危机预警模型进行总结，并与生存分析法进行比较，证明了生存分析在企业财务预警研究领域中具有适用性；然后，，针对生物制药行业的特殊行业性质，根据其财务现状，分析总结其财务危机特征及类型，并借鉴有关专家学者在预警指标建立方面的研究成果，从企业的获现能力状况、偿债能力状况、可持续发展能力状况、财务弹性、公司治理五个方面层次来构建适合我国生物制药行业预警指标体系；且这个指标体系是以现金流量指标和充分体现生物制药企业特点的指标为主体和以传统的财务指标为辅助补充指标的财务预警指标体系；最后将生存分析方法引入财务危机研究中，利用我国生物制药企业的实际数据，分别建立起生物制药企业发生财务危机前一年、前两年、前三年预警模型。本文把在医药学统计及医学临床上有广泛应用的生存分析模型应用到生物制药企业财务预警研究中，得到的模型预测效果也较好，这将为生物制药企业财务预警研究的多样化提供了一种新的思路。
[Abstract]:The financial crisis early warning has been an important research topic in the financial field , and the establishment of the financial crisis early warning mechanism is the most important part of the financial crisis . According to the analysis of the relevant research at home and abroad , it is found that the previous research on the early warning of the financial crisis of the enterprise is based on the general applicability , but the difference between the industry and the economy becomes more and more obvious along with the development of the economy . Therefore , the financial crisis early warning mechanism for each industry has become a hot spot in the early warning study of financial crisis . In 2013 , the State Council issued the latest development plan for the bio - pharmaceutical industry , which pointed out that in 2020 , China wants to make the development of the biological industry a pillar industry of the national economy , which means that the bio - pharmaceutical industry has the golden age of its development . In the process of R & D , production and sales of the pharmaceutical industry , it is faced with various complicated risks . If it is not timely prevented , it is likely to trigger financial crisis or even bankruptcy . Therefore , choosing a reasonable analysis method of financial crisis can effectively prevent and control the financial crisis , which is the main concern of the biological pharmaceutical industry . Firstly , this paper sums up the financial crisis early - warning model at home and abroad , and compares it with the survival analysis method , and proves that the survival analysis has applicability in the field of enterprise financial early warning research . This paper applies the survival analysis model widely used in medicine statistics and medical clinic to the financial early - warning research of biological pharmacy enterprise , and the obtained model has good prediction effect , which will provide a new idea for the diversification of the financial early warning research of bio - pharmaceutical enterprises .

【学位授予单位】：辽宁科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F406.7;F426.72

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