110千伏HL输变电工程财务可行性评价及风险分析

发布时间：2018-01-01 06:33

本文关键词：110千伏HL输变电工程财务可行性评价及风险分析　出处：《华南理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：电力作为基础能源产业，随着社会经济水平的发展，社会对电力供应的要求也日益提高。而随着居民对用电量以及供电可靠性要求的不断提高，必然伴随着大量的输变电设施投入建设。输变电项目的可行性研究和风险研究是电力生产规划的重要部分，对社会经济发展起着很重要的作用。 C市位于广州市东北部，随着当地经济的快速增长，用电需求随之激增。当期C市正面临着供电不足，用电紧张的趋势。HL项目正是为了缓解项目所在地区用电需求紧张的局面而进行规划设计的，通过项目的建设将有效提高当地的供电量以及供电可靠性，减轻当地电网压力，起到保证居民用电，促进当地经济发展的效果。项目投资决策前必须要对项目进行可行性研究，在项目技术是可行的前提条件下，还要对项目进行财务可行性研究，并进行响应的风险评估和应对措施分析。本文针对C市现有环境，结合HL项目的建设设想，对HL输变电项目的投资估算、财务融资、财务收益进行了分析研究，通过敏感性分析评估了风险对项目建设的影响，并针对性地提出了防范对策。本文首先对HL输变电项目建设的所在地以及项目建设概况进行了分析，对项目的建设规模、建设时间和选址的合理性进行了分析。通过融资的角度，分析了项目的筹资比例，确定了项目筹资的方式和计划筹资年限。根据《输变电工程经济评价导则》，对项目的财务数据进行分析和计算。对项目的盈利能力、偿债能力进行了量化分析。通过计算得出项目的净现值为1131.88万元，，项目的内部收益率为10.08%，项目的投资回收期为10年。项目的资产负债率、利息备付率、偿债备付率也优于同行业项目的水平。然后通过对影响项目收益的因素进行了单因素敏感性分析以及多因素敏感性分析，对可能影响项目收益的关键性因素进行了评估，提供了一定的控制思路，以确保项目在财务上可行。依据对过往输变电项目经验以及HL输变电项目的实际情况，对HL输变电项目的风险进行了评估、分类以及应对措施的分析。本文将HL输变电项目的风险依据来源划分为技术风险、管理风险和环境风险三类，对不同类型的风险在HL项目中实际发生的影响和应对措施进行了定性分析。
[Abstract]:As the basic energy industry, with the development of social economic level, the demand for power supply is also increasing, and with the increasing demand for electricity consumption and reliability of the residents. The feasibility study and risk study of transmission and transformation project is an important part of electric power production planning and plays an important role in the development of social economy. City C is located in the northeast of Guangzhou, with the rapid growth of the local economy, the demand for electricity has soared. The trend of power shortage. HL project is designed to alleviate the shortage of electricity demand in the area where the project is located. The construction of the project will effectively improve the local electricity supply and power supply reliability. It is necessary to study the feasibility of the project before the project investment decision, under the condition that the project technology is a feasible prerequisite to reduce the pressure of the local power grid, to ensure the residents' electricity consumption and to promote the local economic development. Financial feasibility study, risk assessment and response analysis of the project are also carried out. According to the existing environment of C city, combined with the construction assumption of HL project, this paper analyzes and studies the investment estimation, financial financing and financial income of HL transmission and transformation project. Through sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of risk on the project construction, and targeted to put forward preventive measures. Firstly, this paper analyzes the location of HL power transmission and transformation project construction and the general situation of the project construction. The construction scale, construction time and location of the project are analyzed. Through the perspective of financing, the financing ratio of the project is analyzed. According to the Economic Evaluation guidelines of Transmission and Transformation Project, the financial data of the project are analyzed and calculated, and the profitability of the project is analyzed. The net present value of the project is eleven million three hundred and eighteen thousand and eight hundred yuan and the internal rate of return of the project is 10.08%. The investment payback period of the project is 10 years. The debt service reserve ratio is also superior to the same industry project level. Then the single factor sensitivity analysis and the multi-factor sensitivity analysis are carried out on the factors that affect the project income. The key factors that may affect the project income are evaluated, and some control ideas are provided to ensure the financial feasibility of the project. According to the past experience of power transmission and transformation project and the actual situation of HL transmission and transformation project, the risk of HL transmission and transformation project is evaluated. This paper divides the risk of HL transmission and transformation project into three categories: technical risk, management risk and environmental risk. The impact of different types of risks in HL projects and the countermeasures are analyzed qualitatively.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.61;F406.7

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