哈药集团年报与证券分析师盈余预测偏差影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-01-04 18:34

本文关键词：哈药集团年报与证券分析师盈余预测偏差影响因素研究　出处：《哈尔滨商业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经济危机给资本市场带来了前所未有的冲击,投资者凭借自身能力作出正确的投资决策越来越难,投资者就需要借鉴一个“代理人”帮助自己进行投资决策。在这样的背景下,证券分析师行业如雨后春笋般快速成长起来。证券分析师利用自身的专业知识以及丰富的经验,对上市公司的盈利状况进行科学、合理的预测,投资者可以利用证券分析师预测的结果进行投资决策。证券分析师在资本市场上的作用越来越突出,其所出具的盈余预测报告对投资者越来越重要。论文首先对上市公司年报与证券分析师盈余预测的相关理论进行阐述,通过比较哈药集团2011-2013年年报与证券分析师的盈余预测报告结果,发现二者之间存在着偏差。通过分析影响哈药集团年报与证券分析师盈余预测差异的因素,指出证券分析师的独立性、专业能力、职业倾向以及行业约束会导致证券分析师出具质量不高的盈余预测报告,而哈药集团内部资产注入、成本费用控制、科技研发等方面的因素也会导致盈余预测报告同实际盈余存在偏差。最后提出为提高哈药集团盈余预测质量,不仅要加强集团内部的管理水平,包括提高集团财务会计管理水平、促进产业结构转型升级和管理效能转型升级等措施,还要提高证券分析师盈余预测的水平,确保缩小上市公司年报与证券分析师盈余预测结果偏差,为投资者进行正确投资提供决策的依据。
[Abstract]:The economic crisis has brought unprecedented impact to the capital market, and it is becoming more and more difficult for investors to make the right investment decision with their own ability. Investors need to learn from an "agent" to help them make investment decisions. In this context. The industry of securities analysts has been growing rapidly. The securities analysts make use of their own professional knowledge and rich experience to make scientific and reasonable forecast on the profit status of listed companies. Investors can use the results of their forecasts to make investment decisions. Securities analysts are playing an increasingly important role in capital markets, and their earnings forecasts are becoming increasingly important to investors. Firstly, the paper expounds the related theories of listed companies' annual reports and securities analysts' earnings forecast, and compares the results of Harbin Pharmaceutical Group's 2011-2013 annual reports with securities analysts' earnings forecast reports. Through the analysis of the factors that affect the difference between the annual report of Harbin Pharmaceutical Group and the earnings forecast of securities analysts, it points out the independence and professional ability of securities analysts. Career orientation and industry constraints will lead securities analysts to issue a low quality earnings forecast report, while the group's internal assets injection, cost and cost control. Scientific and technological research and development factors will also lead to the earnings forecast report and actual earnings deviation. Finally, in order to improve the quality of Harbin Pharmaceutical Group earnings forecast, we should not only strengthen the management level within the group. Including improving the level of financial and accounting management, promoting the transformation of industrial structure and management efficiency transformation and upgrading measures, but also to improve the level of earnings forecast of securities analysts. To ensure that the deviation between the annual report of listed companies and the earnings forecast of securities analysts is reduced to provide a basis for investors to make the right investment decisions.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨商业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.72;F406.72

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