HD输变电项目财务可行性研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 00:07

本文关键词：HD输变电项目财务可行性研究　出处：《华南理工大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：电力行业是基础支持产业，它的发展水平直接关系到相关产业的好坏，它是社会和谐与经济健康发展的重要保证，而输变电项目可行性研究和建设是电力行业生产规模扩大的重要体现，在社会经济发展和保障居民生活方面具有重要的作用。 B市位于广东西翼，是整个广东省西部的电网负荷中心。随着钢铁基地、中科炼油化工等大项目的投产，用电将会迅猛增长。B市目前正面临供电不足，用电紧张的趋势，HD项目的建设能够有效地缓解B市电网的供电压力，电网负荷压力巨大、供电源不足的问题，并保证居民生活用电、促进当地经济快速发展。项目投资决策前必须要对项目进行可行性研究，在项目技术是可行的前提条件下，还要对项目进行财务可行性研究，本文针对B市的投资环境对HD项目投资估算、财务融资、财务收益进行了分析研究，通过敏感性分析评估了风险对项目建设的影响，并针对性地提出了防范对策。本文首先对HD项目建设的区域环境和项目建设概况进行分析，确定了项目的建设规模、建设时间、项目选址的合理性。其次，在确定了项目的投资估算后，通过与限额指标进行对比，进行了项目投资的合理性分析，同时还从融资的角度，分析了项目的筹资比例，确定了项目筹资的方式和计划筹资年限；然后以《输变电工程经济评价导则》作为财务评价依据，通过对预测得出的财务数据进行计算和分析，编制项目的现金流量表，采用净现值和内部收益率作为盈利能力的决策指标，计算得出项目净现值为11708.53万元，项目的内部收益率为9.95%，项目的投资回收期为10.38年；同时通过资产负债率、利息备付率、偿债备付率的动态指标对投资单位的偿债能力进行评价，得出投资企业在借款期内也能还清债务，所以项目具备财务可行性。由于HD项目处于可行性研究阶段，大部分数据都是通过以往工程经验估算得出，评价结果与实际可能出现偏差。因此，还需要对HD项目进行不确定性分析，本文首先对项目进行了单因素敏感性分析，选用净现值和内部收益率两个动态决策指标，确定HD项目的敏感性因素，然后通过对数据的分析确定敏感性因素的变化幅度，通过多因素敏感性分析识别项目的风险因素，并提出应对风险的措施。
[Abstract]:Electric power industry is the basic industry support, its development level is directly related to the quality of the industry, it is an important guarantee for the healthy social harmony and economic development, and the power transmission project feasibility study and construction is an important embodiment of the power industry to expand the scale of production, plays an important role in the social economic development and protect the lives of the residents.
B Guangdong city is located in the west wing, is the center of the whole power grid load in the west of Guangdong province. With the steel base, a large oil refining and chemical production projects, electricity will be the rapid growth of.B city is currently facing a shortage of electricity, with the trend of power shortage, the construction of the HD project can effectively alleviate the pressure of power supply B power grid power load, pressure, power supply problems, and to ensure that residents of electricity, promote the rapid development of the local economy. We must conduct a feasibility study of the project before the investment decision, the project condition is feasible, but also to carry out research on financial feasibility of the project, the investment environment for the city of B HD project investment, financing, financial income was analyzed, through sensitivity analysis evaluated the impact of risk on the project construction, and puts forward the countermeasures.
Firstly, regional environment of HD project construction and project construction situation analysis, to determine the scale of construction projects, the construction time, the location of the project is reasonable. Secondly, in determining investment projects, by comparing with the quota index, analyzes the rationality of project investment, but also from the perspective of financing the analysis, the proportion of financing project, determine the project financing mode and financing plan period; and then to < > as guidelines for economic evaluation of power transmission project financial evaluation based on the calculation and analysis of the financial data to predict the project cash flow statement, decision-making index by using the net present value and internal rate of return as profitability the calculation of the net present value is 117 million 85 thousand and 300 yuan, the internal rate of return is 9.95%, the payback period of the project is 10.38 years; at the same time, the asset liability ratio, The dynamic index of interest reserve ratio and debt service reserve ratio is used to evaluate the debt paying ability of investment units. It is concluded that investment enterprises can also repay debts in the loan period, so the project has financial feasibility.
The HD project is in the feasibility study stage, most of the data are estimated by the previous engineering experience, the evaluation results and the actual deviation may occur. Therefore, but also the need for uncertainty analysis of HD project, this paper analyzed the single factor sensitivity of the project, the net present value and internal rate of return of two dynamic decision index, determine the sensitivity factors of the HD project, and then change the sensitivity factors determined by the analysis of the data, through multi factor sensitivity analysis to identify the risk factors of the project, and put forward the risk response measures.

【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61;F406.72

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