基于工程量清单计价规范的建设项目投资风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 15:01

本文关键词：基于工程量清单计价规范的建设项目投资风险管理研究　出处：《河北工程大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：目前,投资方在投资建设项目工程时面临的问题主要有投资大、完成时间长、并且整个完成过程中的风险复杂繁多。投资商投资建设项目时,首先需要明确项目的性质,因为项目一旦开始,就要经历可行性研究以及招投标过程,施工过程以及竣工验收,合格之后,才进入正式的盈利阶段,每个阶段遇到的风险数目都很多,而且复杂程度很高,一旦没有及时的对风险进行预测并且防范,整个建设项目的成本就会增加,从而导致投资方投资的费用增多。最直接的说法就是投资人是不是能够可行性研究找到合适的建设项目,能不能通过招投标选择一个靠得住的施工单位以及施工单位能不能做好工程,竣工验收是否合格,最后在销售阶段,宣传是否到位,利润是否和预期一样或者超过了预期的盈利能力。因此对建设项目的风险分析是否合理,直接关系到建设项目是否可以顺利开展和完成,也关系到该项目工程质量能否达标、工程成本是否合理以及施工工期有没有拖延。本文以投资者的角度对2013版建设项目工程量清单计价规范进行了详细的剖析,并运用层次分析法列举出投资方运用清单计价投资时所面临的主要风险,重点研究了招标过程中的风险,并且认为在建设项目招标过程中投资方面临的风险可以分为两类:一般风险和特殊风险,特殊风险通常只出现在建设项目中。针对于一般类的风险,我国现阶段所掌握的技术手段和技术方法足以解决。出现不是一般性质的风险,也就是意味着该项工程也有着特殊之处,在使用工程量清单计价时,针对不同的建设项目,经常会遇到此类的问题,而主要方面就是不平衡报价以及实际的工程量和合同订立的工程量不符等问题。以投资者的角度分析了建设项目中投资人所要面临的全过程风险,结合专家调查和概率论相结合的方法分析风险数据符合的具体概率分布模型和相对应的参数值,在建立风险因子框架的基础上,组建蒙特卡洛模拟投资风险模型。该模型对项目建设过程中的各环节所涉及的方法、评价因素等进行了选取,分析了如何利用蒙特卡洛方法对风险因素进行分析,然后,对风险因素进行提取,并将提取出的主要风险因素组成风险指标体系,有具体数据之后,运用模拟软件进行随机模拟,预测出总投资的具体数值,并对主要的风险因素进行敏感性分析,预测主要风险因素对总投资的影响,找出对项目影响程度最大的几个主要风险因素,方便投资者对这几项采取一定的预防措施,主动规避风险,减少费用的增加。
[Abstract]:At present, investors face in the investment of construction project is the main problems of large investment, long time to complete, and the risk in the process of completion of the entire complex. Investment in construction projects, first need to clear the nature of the project, because the project once started, will experience a feasibility study and bidding process, construction process and after the completion of acceptance, qualified, did not enter the earnings period of formal, many number of risk encountered in each stage, and a high degree of complexity, if not timely risk prediction and prevention, the construction project cost will increase, resulting in investment cost increase. The most direct argument is that investors are not to find a suitable construction project feasibility study, can through the bidding to choose the construction units and construction of a reliable single can not do Project completion acceptance is qualified in the final stage of sales promotion is in place, whether the profit and expected or exceeds the expected profitability. Therefore the risk analysis of construction project is reasonable, directly related to whether the construction project can be smoothly carried out and completed, but also related to the quality of the projects can reach the standard, the cost of the project whether it is reasonable and the construction period there is no delay. In this paper, the point of view of the investors in the 2013 edition of the construction project quantity list valuation specification were analyzed in detail, and uses AHP to main risk investment valuation of investment by name when facing, focuses on the risk in the bidding process, and that the investors face the risk in the bidding process of construction projects can be divided into two types: general risk and special risk, special risk usually only appear in the construction of the project. The needle The risk for the general class of technical means and technical methods in the present stage of our country have to solve. The risk is not the general nature, which means that the project also has a special place in the use of bill of quantities, according to the different construction projects, often encounter such problems, and the main aspect is the problem of unbalanced quotation as well as the actual engineering quantity and contract quantity discrepancies and so on. In the view of investors of the whole process of construction project risk investors faced, methods based on expert investigation and probability theory combined with analysis of specific parameters of probability distribution model and the corresponding data in accordance with the risk value based on risk factor framework, the formation of the Monte Carlo simulation model. The model of investment risk involved in all aspects of the project construction process, evaluation factors etc. The selection and analysis of how to use Monte Carlo method to the analysis of risk factors, then the risk factors were the main risk factors for extraction, and the extracted form a risk index system, with specific data, random simulation using simulation software, numerical prediction of the total investment, and analyze the sensitivity of risk factors mainly, the main risk factors for prediction of the total investment, find out the main risk factors impact on large projects, to facilitate the investors of these several take certain precautions, to avoid risks, reduce costs increase.

【学位授予单位】：河北工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F406.7;F426.92

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