我国制造业上市公司资本结构与财务安全实证分析

发布时间：2018-01-18 00:20

本文关键词：我国制造业上市公司资本结构与财务安全实证分析　出处：《暨南大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着信息化管理的发展，越来越多的研究者倾向于利用定量分析方法建立企业危机预警模型，来防范财务危机的发生。在定量分析中，国内外大多数研究者多选用现金流量指标来建立模型。而本文中，主要着重于从资本结构方面探讨财务安全的评估方法。本文的主要研究思路利用我国制造业上市公司2011至2013年的财务数据，对选定的资本结构指标进行差异性检验和相关性筛等方法进行比较研究，筛选出最适合作为变量的指标，建立基于资本结构的财务安全度模型，并随机选择若干上市公司进行预测分析以检验模型的准确性，，同时抽取样本数据检验模型的实用性。通过实证分析，本文总结出以下几点结论第一，在对企业财务安全度进行分析时可以着重根据长期资本负责，资本负债率，股本构成比率以及流动负责构成率来展开。第二，从三年数据拟合的模型来看，长期资本负债率，股本构成比率，流动负责构成比率对模型的贡献最大，可见财务安全程度与企业的负责程度，股本的构成以及流动负责构成比率有主要的关系。第三，从对P值的计算和排序可以看出，这一模型可以依据过去一段时间的数据来测算企业在过去的财务安全程度，有利于企业根据P值的变化来关注企业实际的财务状况的发展变化。
[Abstract]:With the development of information management, more and more researchers tend to use quantitative analysis method to establish enterprise crisis warning model to prevent the occurrence of financial crisis. Most researchers at home and abroad choose the cash flow index to build the model. In this paper, we mainly focus on the capital structure from the perspective of financial security evaluation methods. Based on the financial data of listed manufacturing companies from 2011 to 2013, the main research ideas of this paper are to compare and study the difference test and correlation sieve of the selected capital structure indicators. Select the most suitable indicators as variables, establish a financial security model based on capital structure, and randomly select a number of listed companies to forecast and analyze to verify the accuracy of the model. At the same time, sample data is taken to test the practicability of the model. Through empirical analysis, this paper summarizes the following conclusions Firstly, in the analysis of financial security of enterprises, we can focus on long-term capital responsibility, capital debt ratio, equity composition ratio and current responsibility composition ratio. Second, from the model of three year data fitting, the long-term capital debt ratio, equity composition ratio, current responsibility composition ratio contribute the most to the model, we can see the degree of financial security and the degree of corporate responsibility. The composition of the capital stock and the composition of the current responsibility ratio have a major relationship. Third, from the calculation and ranking of P value, we can see that this model can measure the financial security degree of enterprises in the past based on the data of the past period of time. It is advantageous for enterprises to pay attention to the development and change of the actual financial situation according to the change of P value.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F425;F832.51;F406.7

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