实物期权理论在H公司新的化工项目投资决策中的应用研究

发布时间：2018-01-18 12:11

本文关键词：实物期权理论在H公司新的化工项目投资决策中的应用研究　出处：《东华大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：作为市场活动的主要参与者，公司目前所面临的竞争环境已经是一个不断变化、难以预测的环境，其投资经营活动也受到各种可能随时突发和不可控制因素的影响。在企业对期限长和不确定性高的项目投资的决策过程中，传统的决策分析方法（如NPV法）已经无法对公司项目投资进行有效的决策分析，决策分析者急需采用更为先进的风险管理和决策分析方法进行项目评估，为企业决策者提供准确的决策支持，从而做出正确的判断和决策。实物期权方法，借鉴于系统的金融期权理论和模型，作为一种新的能够包括管理柔性的估值思想和方法，充分体现出了在处理投资项目不确定性与灵活性的优势，不但反映项目创造的预期现金流的贴现值，而且也体现出项目运作过程中管理者进行积极管理所创造出的价值，对传统的决策方法进行了重要的扩展、补充及修正。本文首先按照时间脉络对国内外有关实物期权理论和方法的研究进行了综合介绍，概述了实物期权方法的理论基础，，结合金融期权理论阐述实物期权的概念及分类、实物期权特征以其主要的定价模型；然后，在说明公司项目投资的一般特点和介绍某外资公司H公司计划新建工厂项目的投资背景的基础上，讨论了H公司项目投资决策方法的比较和选择思路，通过将实物期权方法和传统投资分析方法进行比较分析，阐述了实物期权方法的适用性、应用思路及步骤；最后，通过对H公司实际项目投资案例的决策分析来分别说明传统净现值法和实物期权方法在项目投资决策中的实际应用，与传统净现值法行比较，论证了实物期权法是项目投资决策分析和价值计算中的更为有效的方法。本文结合H公司的化工项目投资的实际决策分析案例，研究了实物期权方法在企业项目投资分析中的实际应用，阐明了实物期权方法对于企业发现价值创造机会、制定决策和管理风险以确保企业价值最大化的重要战略意义。
[Abstract]:As the main participants in market activities, the competitive environment that companies are facing is already a constantly changing and unpredictable environment. Its investment and management activities are also affected by a variety of unexpected and uncontrollable factors at any time. In the decision-making process of enterprises to project investment with long term and high uncertainty. The traditional decision analysis method (such as NPV method) has been unable to carry on the effective decision analysis to the company project investment, the decision analyst urgently needs to adopt the more advanced risk management and the decision analysis method to carry on the project appraisal. To provide accurate decision support for enterprise decision-makers, so as to make correct judgment and decision. The real option method is used for reference to the financial option theory and model of the system. As a new valuation idea and method which can include management flexibility, it fully reflects the advantages of dealing with uncertainty and flexibility of investment projects, and not only reflects the discounted value of expected cash flow created by projects. It also reflects the value created by the active management of the managers in the process of project operation, which extends, complements and modifies the traditional decision-making methods. This paper firstly introduces the theories and methods of real options at home and abroad according to the context of time, and summarizes the theoretical basis of real options. Based on the theory of financial options, the concept and classification of real options are expounded. The characteristics of real options are based on their main pricing models. Then, on the basis of explaining the general characteristics of the company's project investment and introducing the investment background of a foreign-funded company's planned new factory project, this paper discusses the comparison of the investment decision methods and the selection ideas of the H company's project investment. By comparing the real option method with the traditional investment analysis method, this paper expounds the applicability, application thought and steps of the real option method. Finally, through the decision analysis of H Company's actual project investment case, the paper explains the practical application of traditional NPV method and real option method in project investment decision, and compares with the traditional NPV method. It is proved that the real option method is a more effective method in project investment decision analysis and value calculation. This paper studies the application of real option method in the investment analysis of chemical project in H Company, which is based on the actual decision analysis case of chemical project investment in H Company. This paper expounds the important strategic significance of real option method in creating opportunities for enterprises to find value, making decisions and managing risks to ensure the maximization of enterprise value.
【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.72;F406.7

【参考文献】