基于AHP和Hill点估计的高校财务风险预警研究

发布时间：2018-04-20 20:24

本文选题：高等学校 + 财务风险　；参考：《天津大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国高等教育自1998年开始为满足广大群众的教育需求，决定逐步实现教育大众化，高等教育大众化的目标设定将高等教育的发展带入了一个全新的时代，，同时该目标的实现迫使高校走上了负债发展的道路，到2013年高校毛入学率已达到30%，而此前仅有5%左右的毛入学率。在我国高等教育从精英式教育向大众化教育转化的过程中，高校发展迅猛，高等教育的规模在短短几年的时间内便达到了世界第一的位置。但也带来了相应的问题，高校发展过快过粗，粗犷的外延式发展为高校埋下了不小的隐患。高等教育急速扩招，而政府财政性教育经费的投入增加缓慢，高校又没有能力自己解决资金需求问题，很难通过自身能力在短期内获得足够的资金。为在短期内解决资金瓶颈的问题，高校纷纷采取负债的方式，而其中最主要的就是向银行贷款。负债虽然解决了高校一时的资金问题，但增加了高校的财务风险，而且高校创收能力又没有得到较大提高，当还债日期到来之时，使高校纷纷陷入了财务危机之中。本研究首先介绍了有关财务风险的一些理论和常用分析方法，然后利用层次分析法，通过对高校偿债能力、运营能力、发展能力和综合能力四个方面的分析，选取了16个指标建立了高校财务预警模型，最后通过比较43所部属院校的相关数据，利用Hill点估计法确定高校财务风险预警综合指数的阈值，将高校财务风险分为轻警、中警和高警三个级别及两个过渡阶段。
[Abstract]:Since 1998, China's higher education began to meet the educational needs of the masses and decided to realize the popularization of education gradually. The goal setting of higher education has brought the development of higher education into a new era. At the same time, the realization of this goal compels colleges and universities to go on the road of debt development. By 2013, the gross enrollment rate of colleges and universities has reached a high level. To 30%, there is only about 5% of the gross enrollment rate. In the process of the transformation of higher education from elite education to popular education in China, the higher education has developed rapidly. The scale of higher education has reached the first position in the world in a few years. But it has also brought the corresponding problems, and the university has developed too fast and rough extension. The development of higher education has been a hidden danger. Higher education has expanded the enrollment rapidly, while the investment of government financial education funds is slowly increasing. Colleges and universities do not have the ability to solve the problem of capital demand by themselves. It is difficult to obtain sufficient funds through their own ability in the short term. The most important thing is to loan to the bank. Although the debt has solved the fund problem of the University for a time, it has increased the financial risk of the University, and the University income generating ability has not been greatly improved. When the debt repayment date comes, the university has fallen into the financial crisis.
This study first introduces some theories and common analytical methods about financial risk, and then uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to analyze the four aspects of the solvency, operational ability, development ability and comprehensive ability of colleges and universities. 16 indexes have been selected to establish the financial early warning model of colleges and universities. Finally, the relative numbers of 43 subordinate institutions are compared. According to the Hill point estimation method, the threshold of the financial risk early warning comprehensive index is determined, and the financial risks are divided into three levels of light police, middle and high police and two transition stages.

【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：G647.5

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