构建水电建筑企业财务风险预警系统

发布时间：2018-04-23 20:01

  本文选题：中国水电 + 财务风险　； 参考：《西南交通大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：伴随全球经济一体化,社会经济环境越发复杂,企业竞争日趋激烈,不确定性财务活动不断增加,财务风险无处、无时不在。 藉此,本学位论文通过收集与分析企业财务、经营管理及外部环境等信息,设置相应的敏感性指标,建立企业财务风险预警指标体系,并运用预警指标体系综合分析、评价企业的财务风险状态,构建一套科学的企业财务风险预警系统,为风险防控提供可靠依据,增强风险管控水平,提高经济效益。 论文通过调查、咨询,从企业营运、管理与环境三个方面归纳总结了水电建筑企业财务风险类别,涵盖资金管理、成本控制、项目管理、税务管理和外部环境。我们利用中国水利水电建设股份有限公司所属16个全资子公司(工程局)2007—2009年3年48个样本数据,借鉴现有研究成果,运用德尔菲调查法反复征询、归纳、修改并筛选出财务风险预警的初步指标,运用主成分分析法、聚类分析法、显著性差异分析法,应用spssl70软件,进一步筛选预警指标,归纳出3级31个指标构成的企业财务风险预警指标体系。在此基础上,运用层次分析法,应用yaahp63软件,建立层次结构模型,设计判断矩阵,检验评分一致性,并进行层次单排序和层次总排序,最终得到各级指标权重系数,形成了企业财务风险预警指标体系。课题以中国水利水电第五工程局有限公司为实例,设置财务风险预警组织机构,建立财务预警信息收集与传递系统,通过确定指标最优值,计算各级指标评价值,划分出4种财务风险预警状态,其中,[0.5685,+∞)表示安全级风险,亮“绿灯”；[0,0.5685)表示低度风险,亮“黄灯”；[-0.6070,0)表示中度风险,亮“橙灯”；(-∞,-0.6070)表示高度风险,亮“红灯”。 最后,论文结合中国水利水电第五工程局有限公司财务风险防控现状,规范工作流程,明确防控措施,初步建立了财务风险防控体系。 论文的研究,对于推动水电建筑企业财务风险预警管理,降低成本,实现财务管理目标,进一步提升企业竞争力,确保企业持续健康发展均具有一定的指导和借鉴作用。
[Abstract]:With the globalization of the global economy, the social and economic environment is becoming more and more complex, the competition of enterprises is becoming more and more intense, the uncertain financial activities are increasing, the financial risks are nowhere and everywhere. Therefore, through collecting and analyzing the information of enterprise finance, management and external environment, the thesis sets up the corresponding sensitivity index, establishes the early warning index system of enterprise financial risk, and analyzes comprehensively by using the early warning index system. In order to provide reliable basis for risk prevention and control, strengthen the level of risk control and increase economic efficiency, the financial risk state of enterprises is evaluated and a set of scientific early-warning system of financial risk is constructed. Through investigation, consultation, enterprise operation, management and environment, this paper summarizes the types of financial risk in hydropower construction enterprises, including fund management, cost control, project management, tax management and external environment. We use the 48 sample data of the 16 wholly owned subsidiaries of China Water Conservancy and Hydropower Construction Co., Ltd (Engineering Bureau) for three years from 2007 to 2009, draw lessons from the existing research results, and use Delphi's investigation method to repeatedly consult and sum up. Modifying and screening the preliminary indexes of financial risk early warning, using principal component analysis, cluster analysis, significant difference analysis, and using spssl70 software to further screen the early warning index. This paper sums up the early warning index system of enterprise financial risk, which is composed of 3 levels and 31 indexes. On this basis, using AHP, using yaahp63 software, establishing hierarchical structure model, designing judgment matrix, checking the consistency of grading, and carrying out single ranking and total ranking of hierarchy, finally getting the weight coefficient of index at all levels. Formed the enterprise financial risk early warning index system. Taking the Fifth Engineering Bureau of China Water Conservancy and Hydropower Corporation as an example, the project sets up an organization for early warning of financial risks, establishes a collection and transmission system of financial early-warning information, calculates the evaluation values of indicators at all levels by determining the optimal values of indicators. There are four kinds of financial risk warning states: [0.5685, 鈭，

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