风电投资及参与市场交易的风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 17:00

本文选题：风电投资 + 电力交易　；参考：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：当前中国的国民经济仍处在快速发展阶段,未来很长时间内仍需大量能源供应。随着化石能源储量不断减少,我国经济发展与能源供应紧张的矛盾将不断升级。为缓解能源短缺、保持经济快速持续增长,大力发展风电等可再生能源已成为全球能源发展战略的共识。风电等可再生能源具有清洁、可持续等特点,对能源可持续发展、减少二氧化碳排放、缓解温室效应均具有重大意义。近几年,中国风电经历了高速发展阶段,风电输出具有随机性和间歇性,会对电网的安全稳定运行造成影响,影响风电的并网效率,从而导致风电项目投资回报具有较高的不确定性,因此研究风电投资风险管理具有重要的现实意义。自20世纪80年代起,世界各国开始打破电力工业的垄断性,放开电力市场。电力行业市场化,通过竞争、市场机制等方式对资源进行优化和配置,从而提高输电效率。近年来,我国也开始进行电力市场化改革,试点推行区域电力市场竞价上网政策。为提高资源配置效率和电力工业生产率,电力市场化是我国电力工业的改革方向,因此研究风电参与电力交易的风险管理对中国风电健康有序持续发展具有前瞻意义。论文从风险管理的基础理论出发,通过对风电投资全寿命周期内的风险进行分析,并提出相关应对策略；从财务风险管理角度,基于风险价值、条件风险等指标对风电投资成本风险进行评估,并以算例分析验证模型的有效性；通过设定电力市场规则,对风电参与市场交易的风险进行分析,并基于效用函数对风电参与市场交易的风险进行评估,算例结果表明,较之期望值、均方差等方法,效用函数可为风力发电商提供更好的风险管控方案。
[Abstract]:At present, China's national economy is still in the stage of rapid development, and a large amount of energy supply will be needed for a long time to come. With the decrease of fossil energy reserves, the contradiction between economic development and energy supply will be upgraded. In order to alleviate the energy shortage and maintain the rapid and sustained economic growth, it has become the consensus of the global energy development strategy to vigorously develop renewable energy such as wind power. Renewable energy, such as wind power, has the characteristics of clean and sustainable, which is of great significance to the sustainable development of energy, the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions and the alleviation of Greenhouse Effect. In recent years, wind power in China has experienced a period of rapid development. Wind power output is random and intermittent, which will affect the safe and stable operation of power grid and affect the efficiency of wind power grid connection. Therefore, the study of wind power investment risk management has important practical significance. Since 1980's, the world began to break the monopoly of the electricity industry and open up the electricity market. Power industry marketization, through competition, market mechanism and other ways to optimize and allocate resources, so as to improve transmission efficiency. In recent years, our country also began to carry out the reform of electric power market, and carried out the regional electric power market bidding policy on a pilot basis. In order to improve the efficiency of resource allocation and the productivity of power industry, electricity marketization is the reform direction of China's electric power industry. Therefore, the study on risk management of wind power participating in electricity trading is of great significance to the healthy and orderly development of wind power in China. Based on the basic theory of risk management, this paper analyzes the risk in the whole life cycle of wind power investment, and puts forward the relevant countermeasures, from the perspective of financial risk management, based on the value of risk. The cost risk of wind power investment is evaluated by conditional risk, and the validity of the model is verified by an example, and the risk of wind power participating in market transaction is analyzed by setting the rules of electricity market. Based on the utility function, the risk of wind power participating in the market transaction is evaluated. The results show that the utility function can provide a better risk control scheme for wind power producers than the expected value, mean square deviation and other methods.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F272.3;F406.7;F426.61

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