J公司财务风险预警和防控研究
发布时间：2018-08-28 16:27
【摘要】：对企业施行财务风险预警的意义不言而喻。本课题在研究国内外财务风险预警的基础上,对企业财务风险预警的基础理论进行了阐述,并界定了相关概念。在此基础上,本文以J公司平台项目作为研究对象,在对其2003年以来的财务报表分析研究的基础上,通过划分偿债能力、盈利能力、发展能力、运营能力、现金流量五个方面对报表数据进行了归纳整理。在界定了风险预警系统的原则目标后,明确了J公司平台项目财务预警系统的功能,对财务预警指标体系和模型进行了构建,并通过实证分析,研究了模型的可行性。 在本文的研究中,对以下几个方面进行了较为深入的研究和创新： (1)运用相关性分析,对J公司的财务信息常用指标进行删选,减少各指标之间的相关关系和重叠区域,使构建的指标体系符合了公司的财务实际情况,避免了因财务指标数据冗余而造成信息失真。 (2)引入现金流量指标。从现金角度弥补了企业常用的财务预警指标的不足,益于评价企业的收益质量和企业的流动性,使财务预警指标体系更加完善。 (3)采用了定性与定量分析相结合的方法。在定量分析模型的基础上,运用定性指标,对模型进行修正,进一步补充和完善了财务预警系统,弥补了传统预警模型的不足。 (4)对功效系数法进行了改进。在界定指标临界值的基础上,设计计算了指标的单项功效系数,运用模糊层次分析法确定了指标的权数,计算得出综合功效系数。 本文所设计的预警系统因指标选取源自一般的财务报表,具有较强的可操作性,可为其他非上市公司财务预警的构建提供参考。
[Abstract]:The significance of financial risk early warning for enterprises is self-evident. On the basis of studying financial risk early warning at home and abroad, this paper expounds the basic theory of financial risk early warning for enterprises, and defines the relevant concepts. On this basis, this paper takes J company platform project as the research object, and divides its financial statements since 2003. On the basis of analysis and research, the paper summarizes the data of financial statements by dividing the repayment ability, profitability, development ability, operation ability and cash flow. After defining the principles and objectives of the risk early warning system, it defines the function of the financial early warning system of J company platform project, and carries out the financial early warning index system and model. Finally, the feasibility of the model is studied through empirical analysis.
In the research of this paper, the following aspects have been deeply studied and innovating:
(1) By using the correlation analysis, the common financial information indicators of J company are deleted to reduce the correlation and overlap area between the indicators, so that the index system conforms to the actual financial situation of the company and avoids the information distortion caused by the redundancy of financial indicators.
(2) Introducing cash flow indicators, which make up for the deficiency of financial early warning indicators commonly used by enterprises from the cash point of view, is beneficial to evaluate the quality of earnings and liquidity of enterprises, and makes the financial early warning indicators system more perfect.
(3) The method of combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis is adopted. On the basis of quantitative analysis model, qualitative index is used to modify the model, which further complements and improves the financial early warning system and makes up for the shortcomings of the traditional early warning model.
(4) The efficiency coefficient method is improved. On the basis of defining the critical value of the index, the single efficiency coefficient of the index is designed and calculated. The weight of the index is determined by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the comprehensive efficiency coefficient is calculated.
The early-warning system designed in this paper has strong maneuverability because the indexes are selected from the general financial statements, which can provide a reference for other non-listed companies to build financial early-warning.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.63;F406.7
本文编号：2209945
[Abstract]:The significance of financial risk early warning for enterprises is self-evident. On the basis of studying financial risk early warning at home and abroad, this paper expounds the basic theory of financial risk early warning for enterprises, and defines the relevant concepts. On this basis, this paper takes J company platform project as the research object, and divides its financial statements since 2003. On the basis of analysis and research, the paper summarizes the data of financial statements by dividing the repayment ability, profitability, development ability, operation ability and cash flow. After defining the principles and objectives of the risk early warning system, it defines the function of the financial early warning system of J company platform project, and carries out the financial early warning index system and model. Finally, the feasibility of the model is studied through empirical analysis.
In the research of this paper, the following aspects have been deeply studied and innovating:
(1) By using the correlation analysis, the common financial information indicators of J company are deleted to reduce the correlation and overlap area between the indicators, so that the index system conforms to the actual financial situation of the company and avoids the information distortion caused by the redundancy of financial indicators.
(2) Introducing cash flow indicators, which make up for the deficiency of financial early warning indicators commonly used by enterprises from the cash point of view, is beneficial to evaluate the quality of earnings and liquidity of enterprises, and makes the financial early warning indicators system more perfect.
(3) The method of combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis is adopted. On the basis of quantitative analysis model, qualitative index is used to modify the model, which further complements and improves the financial early warning system and makes up for the shortcomings of the traditional early warning model.
(4) The efficiency coefficient method is improved. On the basis of defining the critical value of the index, the single efficiency coefficient of the index is designed and calculated. The weight of the index is determined by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the comprehensive efficiency coefficient is calculated.
The early-warning system designed in this paper has strong maneuverability because the indexes are selected from the general financial statements, which can provide a reference for other non-listed companies to build financial early-warning.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.63;F406.7
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