基于Logistic模型A股制造业财务危机预警模型研究

发布时间：2018-09-09 20:46

【摘要】：自2008年全球金融危机爆发以来，先是金融行业的危机，，美国、英国多家银行，投资机构破产倒闭，紧接着金融行业的危机蔓延到实体经济，世界范围内的实体经济衰退，美国，欧洲，日本等大国和地区经济一蹶不振，GDP增长缓慢，甚至负增长，失业率升高，社会不稳定因素增加。连带着新兴国家的经济也遭受巨大影响，我国企业大量破产，特别是沿海地区的制造业大量破产，企业失去订单，最终企业家失去自己的企业，成批成批工人失去工作，从沿海地区返回自己的家乡。制造业作为一个国家经济建设发展的基础，它的稳定发展至关重要，而上市制造业企业的财务状况与企业的发展息息相关。本文主要研究A股市场制造行业财务稳定情况及财务预警模型。全文总共分为五部分。第一章介绍了研究背景和研究内容与结构，说明中国制造业的发展对于国家经济的重要作用，强调分析制造业财务稳定及研究制造业财务预警的意义，并且对财务危机的内涵作了界定。第二章主要介绍财务危机理论与参数模型方法。财务危机理论主要介绍灾害理论和斯科特的四个理论模型。参数模型中主要介绍了一元判断分析模型、多元判断分析模型和Logistic模型及各个模型的优点和局限性。在第二章的最后介绍了本文建模过程中使用到的一种统计方法主成分分析法。第三章主要介绍了制造业上市企业现状及财务危机成因，分析了我国制造上市企业财务危机的特点，并且主要分析财务危机企业与财务正常企业在财务指标上的区别。第四章是针对我国制造上市企业建立财务危机预警Logistic模型，首先对样本进行选择，然后针对制造行业选择财务指标，本文选取的指标为F分数模型中取值的指标，然后利用显著性检验和多重共线性检验，所选指标通过了显著性检验，但所选取指标之间存在多重共线性，利用主成分分析解决多重共线性，求出主成分后再基于主成分进行Logistic模型回归，建立全新我国制造行业的Logistic模型，最后对新建的Logistic模型进行检验，检验模型的预测准确度及预测能力。第五章总结了新设计的Logistic模型的优缺点，分析了新模型的优点和局限性，并且对后续的研究提出了相关建议，进行了展望。
[Abstract]:Since the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, first the crisis of the financial industry, the bankruptcy of many banks and investment institutions in the United States and Britain, followed by the crisis in the financial industry spread to the real economy, the real economy in the world, the United States, In Europe, Japan and other big countries and regions, the economic slump has contributed to the slow or even negative growth of GDP, the rise in unemployment and the increase in social instability. Along with the economic impact of emerging countries, China's enterprises have suffered a great deal of bankruptcy, especially in the coastal areas of the manufacturing sector. Enterprises have lost their orders. Finally, entrepreneurs have lost their own businesses and workers have lost their jobs. Return from the coast to your hometown. As the foundation of a country's economic construction and development, the steady development of manufacturing industry is of great importance, and the financial situation of listed manufacturing enterprises is closely related to the development of enterprises. This paper focuses on the A-share market manufacturing industry financial stability and financial warning model. The full text is divided into five parts altogether. The first chapter introduces the background, content and structure of the research, explains the important role of the development of Chinese manufacturing industry in the national economy, and emphasizes the significance of analyzing the financial stability of manufacturing industry and studying the financial early warning of manufacturing industry. And has made the definition to the financial crisis connotation. The second chapter mainly introduces the financial crisis theory and parameter model method. Financial crisis theory mainly introduces disaster theory and Scott's four theoretical models. In the parameter model, the advantages and limitations of the univariate judgment analysis model, the multivariate judgment analysis model, the Logistic model and each model are introduced. At the end of the second chapter, a statistical method, Principal component Analysis (PCA), is introduced. The third chapter mainly introduces the current situation of manufacturing listed enterprises and the causes of financial crisis, analyzes the characteristics of financial crisis of manufacturing listed enterprises in China, and mainly analyzes the differences between financial crisis enterprises and financial normal enterprises in financial indicators. The fourth chapter is the establishment of financial crisis warning Logistic model for manufacturing listed enterprises in China. First, the sample is selected, then the financial index is selected for manufacturing industry. The index selected in this paper is the index of F-score model. Then, by using significance test and multiple collinearity test, the selected index passed the significance test, but there was multiple collinearity between the selected indexes, and principal component analysis was used to solve the multiple collinearity. The principal component is obtained and then the Logistic model is regressed based on the principal component, and the new Logistic model of manufacturing industry in China is established. Finally, the new Logistic model is tested to test the prediction accuracy and prediction ability of the model. Chapter 5 summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of the newly designed Logistic model, analyzes the advantages and limitations of the new model, and puts forward some suggestions and prospects for further research.
【学位授予单位】：湖南科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F425;F406.7

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