基于EVA的农业上市公司财务危机预警实证研究
发布时间：2018-10-05 15:17
【摘要】：农业上市公司是中国农业发展的产物,在农业发展中占据重要地位,但是我国农业上市公司在发展过程中很容易出现背农经营、被ST和终止上市等财务问题,阻碍了农业上市公司的健康持续发展。如何通过财务危机预警模型来减少或避免财务危机是农业上市公司面临的关键问题。由此可见,构建一套科学合理的农业上市公司财务危机预警模型对农业上市公司的健康发展具有重要意义。 本文选取沪深证券交易所2013年4家被特别处理的农业上市公司和48家正常的农业上市公司为研究样本。通过对财务危机预警和EVA理论的研究,提出了基于EVA的农业上市公司财务危机预警模型,将EVA引入到农业上市公司财务指标体系中代替单纯的会计利润,弥补会计利润不能充分考虑股权资本成本的不足。构建基于EVA的农业上市公司指标体系,从偿债能力、盈利能力等五个方面综合反映农业上市公司的财务状况,运用Logistic预警模型对农业上市公司发生财务危机前3年的数据进行建模,并选取农业上市公司2008-2009年的财务数据进行财务危机准确率检测。本文主要研究结论如下： 1.本文通过对52家农业上市公司发生财务危机的概率P进行计算,设定标准临界值,得出结论：当概率P0.5时,说明公司发生财务危机的可能性较大,处于财务危机状态；当概率P0.5时,说明农业上市公司财务状况良好,处于财务正常状态。由此就可以通过Logistic回归模型来预测农业上市公司的财务状况是否正常。 2.研究结果表明：利用Logistic建立的基于EVA的财务危机预警模型对农业上市公司财务危机有较强的预测能力,预测的准确率均在80%以上,而且距离被特别处理的时间越长,预测的准确率越低：距离被特别处理的时间越短,预测能力越强,误判率就越低。 3.通过对研究结果进行分析得出,流动比率、修正的销售净利率和净利润增长率对农业上市公司的财务状况影响比较显著,由这3个财务指标构成的Logistic回归模型,可以减少或避免农业上市公司财务危机的发生。
[Abstract]:Agricultural listed companies are the products of agricultural development in China and play an important role in agricultural development. However, in the process of development, agricultural listed companies in China are prone to financial problems such as carrying on agricultural management, being terminated by ST, and so on. It hinders the healthy and sustainable development of agricultural listed companies. How to reduce or avoid financial crisis through financial crisis early warning model is a key problem faced by agricultural listed companies. Therefore, it is of great significance to construct a set of scientific and reasonable financial crisis warning model for agricultural listed companies. In this paper, four special agricultural listed companies and 48 normal agricultural listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2013 were selected as the research samples. Based on the research of financial crisis warning and EVA theory, this paper puts forward the financial crisis warning model of agricultural listed companies based on EVA, and introduces EVA into the financial index system of agricultural listed companies instead of pure accounting profits. To make up for the accounting profit can not fully consider the lack of equity capital cost. The index system of agricultural listed companies based on EVA is constructed, which reflects the financial situation of agricultural listed companies from five aspects, such as solvency and profitability. This paper uses Logistic early warning model to model the data of three years before the financial crisis of agricultural listed companies, and selects the financial data of agricultural listed companies in 2008-2009 to detect the accuracy of financial crisis. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1. This paper calculates the probability P of 52 agricultural listed companies' financial crisis, sets the critical value of standard, and draws a conclusion: when the probability is P0.5, the possibility of financial crisis is great and the company is in the state of financial crisis; When probabilistic P _ (0.5), it shows that agricultural listed companies are in good financial condition and are in a normal state of finance. From this, we can predict whether the financial situation of agricultural listed companies is normal by Logistic regression model. 2. The results show that the early warning model of financial crisis based on EVA established by Logistic has a strong ability to predict the financial crisis of agricultural listed companies. The accuracy of forecasting is more than 80%, and the longer the time of special treatment, the longer the forecasting accuracy is. The lower the prediction accuracy is: the shorter the distance is, the stronger the prediction ability is, and the lower the error rate is. 3. Through the analysis of the research results, it is concluded that the current ratio, the revised net interest rate of sales and the net profit growth rate have a significant impact on the financial situation of agricultural listed companies. The Logistic regression model is composed of these three financial indicators. Can reduce or avoid the occurrence of financial crisis of agricultural listed companies.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F302.6;F324
本文编号：2253875
[Abstract]:Agricultural listed companies are the products of agricultural development in China and play an important role in agricultural development. However, in the process of development, agricultural listed companies in China are prone to financial problems such as carrying on agricultural management, being terminated by ST, and so on. It hinders the healthy and sustainable development of agricultural listed companies. How to reduce or avoid financial crisis through financial crisis early warning model is a key problem faced by agricultural listed companies. Therefore, it is of great significance to construct a set of scientific and reasonable financial crisis warning model for agricultural listed companies. In this paper, four special agricultural listed companies and 48 normal agricultural listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2013 were selected as the research samples. Based on the research of financial crisis warning and EVA theory, this paper puts forward the financial crisis warning model of agricultural listed companies based on EVA, and introduces EVA into the financial index system of agricultural listed companies instead of pure accounting profits. To make up for the accounting profit can not fully consider the lack of equity capital cost. The index system of agricultural listed companies based on EVA is constructed, which reflects the financial situation of agricultural listed companies from five aspects, such as solvency and profitability. This paper uses Logistic early warning model to model the data of three years before the financial crisis of agricultural listed companies, and selects the financial data of agricultural listed companies in 2008-2009 to detect the accuracy of financial crisis. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1. This paper calculates the probability P of 52 agricultural listed companies' financial crisis, sets the critical value of standard, and draws a conclusion: when the probability is P0.5, the possibility of financial crisis is great and the company is in the state of financial crisis; When probabilistic P _ (0.5), it shows that agricultural listed companies are in good financial condition and are in a normal state of finance. From this, we can predict whether the financial situation of agricultural listed companies is normal by Logistic regression model. 2. The results show that the early warning model of financial crisis based on EVA established by Logistic has a strong ability to predict the financial crisis of agricultural listed companies. The accuracy of forecasting is more than 80%, and the longer the time of special treatment, the longer the forecasting accuracy is. The lower the prediction accuracy is: the shorter the distance is, the stronger the prediction ability is, and the lower the error rate is. 3. Through the analysis of the research results, it is concluded that the current ratio, the revised net interest rate of sales and the net profit growth rate have a significant impact on the financial situation of agricultural listed companies. The Logistic regression model is composed of these three financial indicators. Can reduce or avoid the occurrence of financial crisis of agricultural listed companies.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F302.6;F324
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