模糊综合分析对收益法评估商誉改进研究

发布时间：2018-10-09 15:55

【摘要】：随着经济结构调整升级,企业间的兼并、并购也愈演愈烈,商誉的评估也成为在企业并购交易中不可忽视的内容,商誉评估的价值也越来越受到人们的重视。商誉评估属于无形资产评估中的一种,起步较晚、发展较慢,理论还不够成熟,开展商誉评估的研究有助于提高我国评估人员的执业水平,防止国有资产的流失。同时,有助于促进产权交易的顺利进行和企业了解自身的形象,激励企业重视并提高自己的商誉和管理水平。因此,对商誉评估方法的探讨具有一定的理论意义和现实意义。形成商誉的成本费用对最终形成的商誉的价值没有直接的影响,也就是说商誉的价值与其形成的成本没有直接关系,加之商誉形成的影响因素多而复杂,很难分解,不符合成本法的原理,所以使用成本法评估商誉的可能性非常小。由于每个企业的商誉都有其特殊性,无法进行对比,市场上几乎找不到与被评估企业商誉相同或相似的参照物。因此,很难使用市场法对商誉进行评估。收益法的主体思路是折现,根据资产的收益能力,预测其未来预期收益,将预期收益折成估计时点的现值作为评估资产的价格。商誉是否有价值往往取决于能否带来未来超过同行业一般水平的超额收益,符合收益法的原理及定义,因此,收益法是商誉评估使用的最多也是最合理的方法。然而收益法也有其不足之处,最大的缺点就是忽视了商誉的社会性和同行业性的比较,加之商誉形成的构成要素很多,使收益法评估出的商誉价值不够精确。基于此,本文引入了模糊综合分析法对传统的收益法加以改进,以期改进后的评估结果更接近于实际,更科学合理。本文首先论述了商誉评估的基本概念和理论基础,商誉评估属于无形资产评估的一种,商誉是“最无形的无形资产”。商誉评估是建立在持续经营和超额收益的前提下的,由于商誉构成要素的不可计量性的特点,商誉评估一般采用三种基本方法中的收益法。收益现值法包括直接法—超额收益法和间接法—割差法两种计量方法。这两种方法都有其自身的缺陷和不足,在评估中我们需注意相应的问题。另外,我们必须清楚的认识到收益法评估商誉的另一个缺陷即忽视了商誉评估的社会性比较和同行业比较。其次,引入了模糊综合分析法。构建梯阶层次图,用层次分析法确定指标体系的权重,最后综合判断得出商誉度,用商誉度对传统收益法评估出的商誉价值进行修正。最后,以SCFS公司商誉评估为例,将修正后的方法运用于SCFS公司的商誉评估,证实了用模糊综合评价方法修正的收益法得出的估价结果更精确。
[Abstract]:With the adjustment and upgrading of economic structure, mergers between enterprises, mergers and acquisitions are becoming more and more serious. The evaluation of goodwill has become an important part of M & A transactions, and the value of goodwill evaluation has been paid more and more attention. Goodwill assessment is a kind of intangible assets evaluation, which starts late, develops slowly, and the theory is not mature enough. The research of goodwill evaluation is helpful to improve the practice level of our country's assessors and prevent the loss of state-owned assets. At the same time, it helps to promote the smooth progress of property rights transactions and enterprises to understand their own image, encourage enterprises to attach importance to and improve their goodwill and management level. Therefore, the study of goodwill evaluation method has certain theoretical and practical significance. The cost of forming goodwill has no direct effect on the value of goodwill, that is to say, the value of goodwill has no direct relationship with the cost of goodwill formation. In addition, the factors affecting the formation of goodwill are many and complex, so it is difficult to decompose. It does not conform to the principle of cost, so the possibility of using cost to evaluate goodwill is very small. Because the goodwill of each enterprise has its particularity, it is impossible to compare it, and it is almost impossible to find the same or similar reference material in the market. Therefore, it is difficult to use market method to evaluate goodwill. The main idea of income method is discounting. According to the income ability of assets, it predicts the expected income in the future, and converts the expected income into the present value of the estimated time point as the price of the assets. The value of goodwill usually depends on whether it can bring the excess income which exceeds the general level of the same industry in the future, which accords with the principle and definition of income method. Therefore, income method is the most and most reasonable method used in goodwill assessment. However, the income method also has its shortcomings, the biggest drawback is that it ignores the sociality of goodwill and the comparison with industry, and the forming elements of goodwill are many, which makes the value of goodwill evaluated by income method not accurate enough. Based on this, this paper introduces the fuzzy comprehensive analysis method to improve the traditional income method, in order to improve the evaluation results more close to the reality and more scientific and reasonable. This paper first discusses the basic concept and theoretical basis of goodwill assessment, which is a kind of intangible assets evaluation, and goodwill is the most intangible asset. Goodwill assessment is based on the premise of continuing operation and excess income. Due to the non-quantifiable characteristics of the components of goodwill, goodwill assessment generally adopts the income method of three basic methods. The present value method includes direct method-excess income method and indirect method-cut-off method. These two methods have their own defects and shortcomings, we should pay attention to the corresponding problems in the evaluation. In addition, we must clearly recognize that the income method of goodwill evaluation another defect is to ignore the social comparison of goodwill assessment and the same industry comparison. Secondly, the fuzzy comprehensive analysis method is introduced. Constructing the ladder hierarchy chart, determining the weight of the index system by AHP, finally judging the degree of goodwill synthetically, and modifying the value of goodwill assessed by the traditional income method with the degree of goodwill. Finally, taking the goodwill evaluation of SCFS Company as an example, the modified method is applied to the goodwill evaluation of SCFS Company, which proves that the valuation result obtained by the income method modified by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is more accurate.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F275.2

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