山东省生猪饲养成本效益及规模选择研究
发布时间：2018-11-05 11:29
【摘要】：山东省是中国的养猪大省，2011年全省生猪出栏量和猪肉产量分别达到4301.1万头和353.2万吨，分别占中国生猪出栏总量和猪肉总产量的6.45%和6.97%，均居全国第4位。尽管山东是全国养猪大省，但不是养猪强省，生猪生产的标准化水平、现代化水平和产业化水平较低，周期性波动较明显，生猪和猪肉质量安全隐患依然存在。通过2000-2011年山东省生猪成本效益统计数据，分析山东生猪成本效益的变动趋势及影响因素，并提出适合山东省未来一段时间的生猪饲养规模。 本文在界定生猪饲养成本和规模的基础上，利用《全国农产品成本效益调查资料》（2000～2012）的统计数据，首先分析了山东省农户散养和规模养殖的成本变动趋势及影响因素；然后利用灰色局势决策法，得出适合山东省目前和未来一段时间的合理养殖模式。研究得出：2000-2011年，山东省农户散养和规模饲养的成本及成本要素变动趋势基本一致，成本构成要素中饲料费、仔猪费、人工成本所占比重最大，人工成本随着规模的扩大在逐渐降低。不同养殖规模的养殖效益的影响因素也不同，散养户和小规模户主要是通过提高养殖技术，改善饲料配比结构，提高饲料利用率。小规模养殖户也可以通过成立专业化生猪养殖合作社来提高成本收益率。中规模养殖户和大规模养殖户的劳动力投入数量和精饲料投入量达到了较为饱和的状态，要通过适当减少劳动力数量和精饲料投入量或适当的缩小养殖规模。通过灰色局势决策分析法得出，中规模是最适合山东省生猪养殖的规模，其次是小规模和大规模，山东省应引导散养户向规模户转变，大力发展中小规模养殖，适度发展大规模养殖。 为了减轻生猪价格及物价波动对生猪饲养的负面影响，减缓波动幅度，，山东省加大对生猪产业的科技支持，通过科技手段改善生猪的养殖环境，实现生猪产业的可持续发展。引导农户转变养殖规模，创新生猪养殖组织形式，提高生猪养殖的组织化程度。加快饲料业发展和加强疫病防控等角度减少外部冲击，使养猪业逐渐步入良性循环的轨道。
[Abstract]:Shandong Province is the largest pig raising province in China. In 2011, the total number of live pigs and the pork output reached 43.011 million and 3.532 million tons respectively, accounting for 6.45 percent and 6.97 percent of the total output of live pigs and pork in China, respectively. Each ranked fourth in the country. Although Shandong is a big province for raising pigs in China, it is not a strong province for raising pigs. The standard level of pig production, the level of modernization and industrialization are low, the periodical fluctuation is obvious, and the hidden danger of pig and pork quality safety still exists. Based on the cost-benefit statistics of live pigs in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2011, the changing trend and influencing factors of the cost benefit of Shandong live pigs were analyzed, and the scale of raising live pigs suitable for a period of time in Shandong Province was put forward. On the basis of defining the raising cost and scale of live pigs, using the statistical data of the National Agricultural Product Cost-benefit Survey (2000 / 2012), this paper first analyzes the trend and influencing factors of the cost variation of peasant households in Shandong Province. Then the grey situation decision method is used to obtain a reasonable breeding model suitable for Shandong province for a period of time. The results show that: from 2000 to 2011, the change trend of the cost and cost elements of the farmers in Shandong Province is basically the same, the feed cost, the piglet fee and the labor cost account for the largest proportion among the cost components, such as fodder fee, piglet fee and labor cost. The cost of labor is decreasing gradually as the scale increases. The factors affecting the efficiency of aquaculture were different in different scale. If the breeders and small-scale heads of household improved the breeding technology, the structure of feed proportion and the utilization rate of feed could be improved. Small-scale farmers can also set up specialized hog farming cooperatives to improve the rate of return on costs. The amount of labor force input and the amount of concentrate feed input of middle scale and large scale breeders have reached the saturation state. The quantity of labor force and the amount of concentrate feed input should be reduced appropriately or the scale of breeding should be reduced appropriately. Through the grey situation decision analysis method, it is concluded that middle scale is the most suitable scale for raising live pigs in Shandong Province, followed by small scale and large scale. Shandong Province should guide retail farmers to transform into large scale households and vigorously develop medium and small scale breeding. Moderate development of large-scale aquaculture. In order to reduce the negative effect of the price and price fluctuation of live pigs on the raising of live pigs, Shandong Province increased the scientific and technological support to the pig industry, improved the raising environment of live pigs by scientific and technological means, and realized the sustainable development of the pig industry. To guide farmers to change the scale of breeding, to innovate the organizational form of pig breeding, and to improve the degree of organization of pig farming. Speed up the development of feed industry and strengthen the prevention and control of epidemic diseases and other angles to reduce external shocks, so that the pig industry gradually into a virtuous cycle track.
【学位授予单位】：山东农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F326.3;F302.6
本文编号：2311943
[Abstract]:Shandong Province is the largest pig raising province in China. In 2011, the total number of live pigs and the pork output reached 43.011 million and 3.532 million tons respectively, accounting for 6.45 percent and 6.97 percent of the total output of live pigs and pork in China, respectively. Each ranked fourth in the country. Although Shandong is a big province for raising pigs in China, it is not a strong province for raising pigs. The standard level of pig production, the level of modernization and industrialization are low, the periodical fluctuation is obvious, and the hidden danger of pig and pork quality safety still exists. Based on the cost-benefit statistics of live pigs in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2011, the changing trend and influencing factors of the cost benefit of Shandong live pigs were analyzed, and the scale of raising live pigs suitable for a period of time in Shandong Province was put forward. On the basis of defining the raising cost and scale of live pigs, using the statistical data of the National Agricultural Product Cost-benefit Survey (2000 / 2012), this paper first analyzes the trend and influencing factors of the cost variation of peasant households in Shandong Province. Then the grey situation decision method is used to obtain a reasonable breeding model suitable for Shandong province for a period of time. The results show that: from 2000 to 2011, the change trend of the cost and cost elements of the farmers in Shandong Province is basically the same, the feed cost, the piglet fee and the labor cost account for the largest proportion among the cost components, such as fodder fee, piglet fee and labor cost. The cost of labor is decreasing gradually as the scale increases. The factors affecting the efficiency of aquaculture were different in different scale. If the breeders and small-scale heads of household improved the breeding technology, the structure of feed proportion and the utilization rate of feed could be improved. Small-scale farmers can also set up specialized hog farming cooperatives to improve the rate of return on costs. The amount of labor force input and the amount of concentrate feed input of middle scale and large scale breeders have reached the saturation state. The quantity of labor force and the amount of concentrate feed input should be reduced appropriately or the scale of breeding should be reduced appropriately. Through the grey situation decision analysis method, it is concluded that middle scale is the most suitable scale for raising live pigs in Shandong Province, followed by small scale and large scale. Shandong Province should guide retail farmers to transform into large scale households and vigorously develop medium and small scale breeding. Moderate development of large-scale aquaculture. In order to reduce the negative effect of the price and price fluctuation of live pigs on the raising of live pigs, Shandong Province increased the scientific and technological support to the pig industry, improved the raising environment of live pigs by scientific and technological means, and realized the sustainable development of the pig industry. To guide farmers to change the scale of breeding, to innovate the organizational form of pig breeding, and to improve the degree of organization of pig farming. Speed up the development of feed industry and strengthen the prevention and control of epidemic diseases and other angles to reduce external shocks, so that the pig industry gradually into a virtuous cycle track.
【学位授予单位】：山东农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F326.3;F302.6
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